It happens every season without fail. Stud players experience sluggish starts and their fantast managers begin to panic. In a normal season, attempting to buy such players at a discount rate is a savvy move veteran GMs make without hesitation. After all, these players were early round picks because of their consistently superior production and odds are they’ll return to those levels after a few slow weeks.
This is almost always true in a regular MLB season, however 2020 is the furthest thing from ordinary we’ve ever seen. It’s been less than three weeks and we’re already at the season’s quarter poll. Will players who started slow have time to rebound? In a typical season, players most often return to form after four to eight weeks, but sometimes the regression can be delayed until the second half of the season. This timeline makes buying low an extremely risky proposition. In an unprecedented campaign, we’re forced to make bold moves and hope that the historical production wins out.
On the other hand, it might be safer not to take the risk at all. There’s no telling how long it’ll be until slumping players increase their production and acquiring them means forfeiting players who are contributing now. This is why we need more than historical production to justify going all in on such a trade.
As always, we look to the statistics to tell us which players we should be interested in acquiring below market value. For hitters we’ll be investigating BA – xBA (batting average minus expected batting average), wOBA – xwOBA (weighted on base average minus expected weighted on base average) and BABIP. On the pitching side we’ll examine FIP (fielding independent pitching), xFIP (expected FIP) and atypical negative trends in performance. These stats are our best approximates of who is due for increased production, however they can’t tell us when this increase will occur. No one knows, and that’s what makes fantasy baseball so enjoyable and infuriating at the same time.
Below you’ll find potential buy low candidates based on the statistics referenced earlier. The number next to the players’ name represents their FPG (fantasy points per game) in ESPN standard leagues.
Batters
Christian Yelich OF, Mil | 1.3
By far the most obvious name, Yelich currently sits as OF 29 (and there are three players per OF ranking) despite being drafted second overall on average. His .095 BABIP (.300 is average) is third lowest in all of MLB and even a poor .188 xBA is a 65% increase over a .114 BA. Everyone knows the 2018 NL MVP will turn it around and that’s what makes acquiring him tricky, but putting out feelers never hurts if Yelich can be stolen at a discount rate.
Anthony Rendon 3B, LAA | 1.8
Going into Sunday’s action, Rendon is hitless in his last 16 at bats and that has severely hurt his point total. Optimism exists as his .125 BABIP is bottom 10 and a .111 BA is worse than his .175 xBA. In addition, missing the first series of the year may have tested the patience of Rendon’s GM, further enabling a below value buy.
Trea Turner SS, Was | 1.2
Much like the names above, Turner’s BA and wOBA sit more than 30% below their expected marks and his .194 BABIP is bottom 30 in the league. After averaging 3.1 FPG last season, expect the speedster to turn it around soon.
Gleyber Torres SS, NYY | 0.6
Yes, you read that FPG correctly. Torres has been a huge disappointment but, as one would figure, is due for improvement. A .146 BA and .191 wOBA are at least 40% lower than expected and a .162 BABIP is bottom 20 in the league. Check in with the shortstop’s team as he is clearly better than SS 41.
Eugenio Suarez 3B, Cin | 1.3
Suarez’ huge 2019 hasn’t carried over as he’s currently 3B 27. The main culprit has been BA as his .120 mark is nearly 50% lower than an expected .177. Group that with a wOBA of .264, 20% below expected, and a bottom 10 BABIP and the slugger is an attractive buy low bat.
Eduardo Escobar 3B/2B, Ari | 1.1
Escobar isn’t a huge name, despite a finish as hitter 21 last season, but his numbers stand out as far below expected. A .267 xBA and .310 xwOBA are both 100 points lower in actuality and are bottom 15 differentials in each metric, and a .205 BABIP is still less than the league average. Escobar is a player that won’t take much to acquire yet can pay huge dividends.
Pitchers
Luis Castillo SP, Cin | 8.3
Castillo is the biggest name pitcher whose FIP and xFIP are substantially lower than ERA, as his marks are 4.76, 1.73 and 2.14. It’s only been three starts, but many GMs neglect referencing these stats which enables a discount buy on Cincinnati’s number three starter.
Aaron Nola SP, Phi | 14.5
Nola has only made two starts and his 3.97 ERA is respectable, but a 2.17 FIP and 1.48 xFIP suggest a potential return to 2018s ace form exists. Granted the sample size is small, it’s all we have to work with and buying shares of Nola could prove beneficial.
Mike Minor SP, Tex | .7
After three starts and three losses, Minor’s stock couldn’t be lower. A 6.89 ERA distracts from a quality 3.67 FIP and 4.33 xFIP and strike out and walk rates near 2019 show that Minor has perhaps been the victim of some bad luck. Buy the lefty as his numbers will only improve and his role on a Rangers team that already lost Corey Kluber remains vital.
Hyun-Jin Ryu SP, Tor | 7.3
Ryu is coming off a spectacular start against Atlanta during which he scored 24 points despite pitching only five innings, which is a strong indicator of his performance to come. His 5.14 ERA makes him easily acquirable and a 4.11 FIP and 3.68 xFIP indicate he has more to offer. A point of concern has been his inability to work deep into games thus far, but last seasons’ 6.1 IP per start suggests that should improve.
Kyle Hendricks SP, CHC | 15.3
In his three starts Hendricks has been a mixed bag as he has submitted one amazing performance, one above average and one subpar. A quality 3.54 ERA actually stands to improve according to a 2.42 FIP and 3.13 xFIP, which makes acquiring Hendricks entirely in the realm of possibilities. GMs may believe they’re selling high when the best is yet to come.
