Although there really isn’t such a thing as an off-season in baseball, these next few weeks are about as close as it gets, with the World Series over and the Hot Stove season in its lukewarm stage. When it comes to fantasy baseball, restless owners are in luck, as they can turn to mock drafts as a way to experiment with different drafting strategies and gain familiarity with the player pool.
For now, let’s forget about November mocks. Instead, I’d like to focus on a series of four industry slow mock drafts for 2018 organized by Justin Mason of Friends with Fantasy Benefits that began in late-September. A little crazy indeed, but the fact that we have data from four drafts adds multiple layers of accuracy when examining ADPs.
Still, there are several ADP comparisons that I consider to be peculiar and too heavily weighted towards 2017. Here are a handful of examples. Composite ADPs from the four mocks are in parenthesis.
Rhys Hoskins (38)
Edwin Encarnacion (40)
Since when does a 50-game sample size outweigh a lengthy track record of elite-level production? Sure, Hoskins is a top prospect and he made quite an early impression in his rookie campaign, slugging 18 homers to go along with 48 RBI. But Encarnacion has now pieced together six straight seasons of at least 34 home runs and 98 RBI. Despite inferior counting stats as compared to 2016, the Indians slugger displayed much improved plate discipline in 2017, raising his walk rate from 12.4% to a career-best 15.6%. Hoskins might be the trendier name but in a non-keeper league, give me Encarnacion.
Alex Bregman (68)
Kyle Seager (83)
Bregman is coming off a solid first full season in the Majors and only figures to get better. Seager has averaged 27 homers and 89 RBI over the past four seasons and will be undervalued heading into 2018 due to a strange perception that his 2017 campaign was a huge disappointment. In reality, the only disappointment was the .249 batting average. If someone in your league is willing to pay a premium for Bregman’s upside, let them. Factoring in the ADP difference, I’ll gladly take Seager.
Tommy Pham (75)
Andrew McCutchen (77)
I don’t mean to minimize Pham’s breakout 2017 season (.306 AVG, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 95 R, 25 SB), but this ADP simply assumes that he will do it again. I’m not so sure. McCutchen, while no longer a first-rounder, is fresh off a strong bounceback season in which he batted .279 with 28 homers, 88 RBI, 94 runs scored and 11 stolen bases. At 31 years of age, he still has plenty left in the tank and certainly offers profit potential at this price.
Luke Weaver (105)
Johnny Cueto (123)
There’s no denying that Cueto was one of the most disappointing fantasy hurlers of 2017, but is it time to give up on him entirely based on one rough season? Absolutely not. I’ll be very interested in grabbing the former fantasy ace at a steep discount this spring in hopes that he can reclaim at least mid-rotation value, health permitting. As for Weaver, I’m a believer in the guy, but with only 22 career big league appearances under his belt (18 starts), it’s not like he’s a sure thing entering 2018. Plus, after a dominant August (1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), the 24-year-old righty ended 2017 on a down note, allowing a combined 14 runs over his final two starts, spanning 7 2/3 innings. Valuing him as more than a fourth or fifth starter in 12-team mixed leagues is risky.
Steven Souza Jr. (129)
Jay Bruce (151)
Not too long ago, much was expected from Souza Jr. But it was not until 2017 that he took major steps towards meeting those expectations, wrapping up the season with 30 home runs. The 28-year-old outfielder continues to be a batting average liability, however, and he posted a miserable .192 AVG in the second half. Bruce launched a career-high 36 homers and has now recorded at least 25 home runs in seven of his last eight seasons. He won’t help his owners in the batting average department but from a pure run production standpoint, I’d feel a lot more comfortable with Bruce, regardless of where the proven veteran lands in free agency.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @ZachMLB
