James W. Marshall, a carpenter, began the morning of January 24, 1848 in much the same way as any other morning. He was overseeing the construction of a sawmill on the American River in Coloma, California. Specifically on this morning, he was examining the ditch that had been dug the previous night which was to facilitate the draining of water away from the waterwheel of the mill. It was upon such examination when he noticed some shiny objects in the riverbed. He had an inkling of what kind of metal it was and upon further professional examination, his suspicion was confirmed. It was gold. He and his partner John Sutter tried to keep the discovery a secret, but alas, by August over 4,000 people had converged upon the area. The California Gold Rush eventually drew over 300,000 such “prospectors.”
For those who own a fantasy baseball team in a keeper or dynasty league, finding the right hitting prospects to form the future foundation of your team can be at once rewarding but other times frustrating. Getting in on the ground floor of a Ronald Acuna Jr. or a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will most likely cost you a high draft pick. But there are other prospects for whom you will not have to break the bank. It is possible to mine gold with reasonable draft picks. So let’s go prospecting.
First we need to identify the attributes and statistics for hitters that may signal success in the major leagues. We can then plug our prospects into that model. History tells us that the hitters who do well in both head-to-head points leagues and roto leagues are those hitters who possess an elite combination of power and speed. You need not look any further than last season. Using a standard points system and a conventional five category roto format, we find that there were seven hitters last year who ranked in the top 10 in both points and roto:
Marcus Semien: 2nd in H2H, 1st in roto
Jose Ramirez: 3rd in H2H, 2nd in roto
Trea Turner: 4th in H2H, 6th in roto
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 5th in H2H, 7th in roto
Bryce Harper: 6th in H2H, 9th in roto
Shohei Ohtani: 7th in H2H, 4th in roto
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 1st in H2H, 10th in roto
With one exception (Vlad Jr.) everyone on this list displayed a combination of power and speed. Let’s simply use slugging percentage to measure power and net stolen bases to measure speed. Just to make sure we have a bona fide model by which to judge our prospects, let’s add the third statistic of weighted runs created plus (wRC+) which is runs created per plate appearance where the average is 100. It serves nicely as a sort of all-in-one statistic to measure the value of a hitter and unlike our other two statistics is park adjusted. Considering baseball is the only sport where the playing field is different for each team, this will be an important factor to consider. Everyone on this list had at least a .536 slugging percentage, led by Harper at .615 which led the major leagues, Tatis Jr. at .611 and Guerrero Jr. at .601. The worst slugging percentage of the seven was Turner’s .536 which still ranked 15th in the majors. Everyone on this list except for Guerrero Jr. had double figures in net stolen bases, led by Turner with 27, Ramirez with 23 and Tatis Jr. with 21. All six outside of Guerrero Jr. finished within the top 36 in the majors. Everyone on this list had a wRC+ of at least 131, led by Harper with 170 which led the major leagues and Guerrero Jr. with 166 which was second. These seven hitters finished in the top 31 in the majors in wRC+ and the average wRC+ for all seven hitters combined was 150.6 which means collectively they were 50.6% better than the average hitter. As a prospector, you now have three statistical categories by which to judge whether the young hitter you’re considering drafting will be a mainstay in your dynasty league or not.
KHALIL LEE, NEW YORK METS
Mets fans love rooting for Steve Cohen’s money. So far it’s resulted in a second ace added to the pitching staff (Max Scherzer) and three starting position players (Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha) all of whom signed multi-year contracts. But perhaps Cohen could’ve saved some of that money, at least in constructing the outfield. The Mets acquired Lee from the Kansas City Royals before the 2021 season in yet another attempt to fill a hole in centerfield that has existed ever since Carlos Beltran left a decade ago. They’ve either had to go with good offense (Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto) or good defense (Juan Lagares). Marte might be the answer this year, but Lee (perhaps unexpectedly) took a major step forward in his career last season in Triple-A.
Before last season, Lee’s reputation was that of a good defensive centerfielder with great speed but a weak hitter. He hit only six home runs in 2018 with a .390 slugging percentage and eight home runs in 2019 with a .372 slugging percentage. But his power suddenly blossomed last season in Triple-A with 14 home runs while his slugging percentage ballooned to .500. Furthermore, his newfound power did not cause his plate discipline to suffer. In fact, his walk rate improved from 11.9% in 2019 to a whopping 18.3% in 2021. A young hitter suddenly finding his power stroke while improving his plate discipline at the same time means that he has figured something out at the plate and learned how to make more frequent and harder contact. This was even evident when the Mets promoted him to the majors at the end of last season. Even though he went only 1-for-18 at the plate, he hit the ball hard 60% of the time. Lee’s speed cannot be questioned even though his net stolen bases last season was -2. He stole 53 bases in 2019. Most 23-year-olds don’t lose their speed overnight. He probably just needs to master the art of base stealing better at the higher level. The final piece of the model confirms his status as a dynasty keeper as his wRC+ increased from 112 in 2019 to 162 in 2021.
I suspect that Mark Canha’s position in the starting outfield is not set in stone, particularly with the advent of the designated hitter in the National League this season. Canha’s defensive runs saved above average last season in the outfield was -11. Even Marte’s defense has eroded with age. His defensive runs saved above average was -4 last season. The door will open for Lee sooner rather than later.
JOEY WIEMER, MILWAUKEE BREWERS
When Roy Hobbs stepped up to the plate in the ninth inning for the New York Knights against the Pittsburgh Pirates, few people realized that he was about to create the standard by which all future power hitters would be judged. Can you hit a light tower with a home run? Reggie Jackson did it at Tiger Stadium in the 1971 All-Star Game. Eloy Jimenez did it in the Carolina League home run derby in 2017 which probably doesn’t count. On August 5, 2021, Joey Wiemer did it for the Carolina Mudcats, the Class A affiliate of the Milwaukee Brewers, in walk-off fashion in the 11th inning at Five County Stadium in Zebulon, North Carolina. That started a home run barrage from Wiemer, as he hit three more home runs over the next two games and was promptly promoted to High A Wisconsin. The promotion did not cool him off as he hit five home runs in his first eight games there. Needless to say, Wiemer fulfills the first component of our dynasty keeper model very nicely. He’s got the prototypical stamp of a power hitter. He uses his 6-foot-5, 215 pound frame to leverage the ball high in the air, but can hit screaming line drives as well. Such a prototype of course carries with it a high degree of swing and miss at this stage of his development, but considering we’re talking about possibly a 2024 arrival in the majors, that deficiency has time to improve. After slugging .478 in A ball last year, he slugged .719 after his promotion to High A with a wRC+ of 195. But Wiemer is far from a one trick pony. He added 18 net steals in 75 games in A ball and six net steals in 34 games at High A. That combination of power and speed in that type of body reminds one of Dave Winfield and Dave Parker. And he was able to do that without the use of Roy Hobbs’ famous “Savoy Special” bat.
JOSE RODRIGUEZ, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Going 6 inches south of Wiemer and 40 pounds lighter we find a 20-year-old middle infielder who has skyrocketed to the top of the Chicago White Sox’ prospect list. But don’t let the slighter build fool you. Rodriguez has a blend of power and speed that will pay dividends for dynasty owners for years to come. Signing his first professional contract at such an early age (16) has no doubt helped his rapid development. Rodriguez spent two seasons at Rookie level ball in 2018 and 2019. At the age of 18, he slugged .505 with a 121 wRC+ in the Arizona League in 2019. Then in 2021, his quick development was readily apparent when he was promoted from A ball to High A and finished the season in Double-A. He spent most of last season with Kannapolis in A ball and slugged .452 with a wRC+ of 109. His promotion to the Winston-Salem Dash in High-A saw his slugging percentage improve to .538 and his wRC+ to 141. These are gaudy power numbers for a middle infielder. The best slugging percentage by a middle infielder last season in the majors was .538 by Marcus Semien. He provided excitement on the base paths as well in 2021, netting a total of 20 stolen bases for Kannapolis and Winston-Salem.
There are a lot of minor leaguers who can hit for power, but those who do so while also improving their walk to strikeout ratio as they’re promoted to higher levels in the system are the ones to keep an eye on. They’re the ones whose power is sustainable and can be projected to the next level. Rodriguez had a 22.5% K% in 2019 in Rookie ball then cut that to 15.8% in A ball and 10.3% in High-A in 2021.
The White Sox have had a revolving door at second base since 2014 and with the trade of Nick Madrigal to the Cubs, Rodriguez has a clear path to the majors, probably by 2023. He also plays with enthusiasm and a love for the game that’s apparent to anyone who has seen him play, reminding one of a Brandon Phillips or Francisco Lindor. Dynasty owners too should be enthusiastic if they draft him. The only question about him may be whether he or Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners will become universally known as “J-Rod.”
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