When reviewing draft results in preparation for my own upcoming strategy battles, differences in opinion interest me a lot more than unanimous agreement. OK, Clayton Kershaw will be a top-10 pick this season in 99.9 percent of leagues. Trea Turner will be the first shortstop off the board. Who will be the most expensive catcher? Gary Sanchez, of course.
But what about Yoan Moncada? How is the market valuing him, for example? Well, there’s no better way to study this than to compare two industry drafts, and thanks to Tuesday night’s Mixed LABR draft, we’re now able to do just that. So, let’s review the results of both the FSTA draft, which concluded a few weeks ago, and Mixed LABR in an attempt to identify a group of players whose FSTA price differed significantly from their price in LABR. Note that the FSTA league is a 14-team mixed while LABR is a 15-teamer, and since I don’t want anyone to get confused, I’ve included only the overall pick numbers.
Yoan Moncada
FSTA: 146
Mixed LABR: 103
Speaking of which, owners who spent a late-round pick on Moncada last spring were hoping for a mid-June call-up, at the latest, and a Trea Turner-like impact. As it turned out, that scenario was only a fantasy, as Moncada did not make his season debut until mid-July and finished the year with an underwhelming .231 batting average in 54 games for the White Sox. But, the most disappointing stat of Moncada’s 2017 campaign were the three steals, this after swiping 17 bags over 80 games for Triple-A Charlotte. On the bright side, the 22-year-old did enjoy a solid September, hitting .274 while slugging five home runs, suggesting that further growth in the power department is a real possibility. Moncada certainly carries 20/20 potential for 2018, so even in a non-keeper format, he’s someone well worth targeting. I’d have no problem selecting him at #103 and would not be surprised if his draft price continues to rise in the coming weeks.
FSTA: 139
Mixed LABR: 90
Unlike Moncada, Albies has achieved immediate big-league success. The Netherlands native is coming off a stellar 57-game showing in which he registered a .286/.354/.456 slash to go with 34 runs and eight steals. Especially impressive was his plate discipline, as Albies recorded a 21-to-36 BB/K ratio. If you miss out on the high-end shortstops, there’s nothing wrong with settling for Albies and his likely 25-plus steals and strong batting average. Would I feel comfortable drafting him with the 90th pick? Probably, but it’s a close call.
FSTA: 161
Mixed LABR: 106
You know what you’re getting with Olson. In 138 games split between Triple-A and the big leagues last season, the 23-year-old mashed 47 homers, including a 13-home run month of September with the A’s. The strikeout rate is high and the batting average is nothing special, but Olson does walk quite a bit, a skill that gives him added value in OBP leagues. While paying for a 40-homer season isn’t a great idea, I do get the sense that enough owners will be dismissing his 2017 performance as a fluke that he actually could be a mild bargain. A draft spot somewhere in the middle of his FSTA and Mixed LABR price sounds about right.
FSTA: 197
Mixed LABR: 138
Who saw that coming? Gardner, who was a fantasy afterthought at this time last year, pieced together the first 20/20 season of his career in 2017 while finishing just one run short of his single-season high of 97 runs set back in 2010. Understandably, there is plenty of skepticism regarding Gardner’s ability to duplicate last season’s line, especially the 21 home runs. Keep in mind that the veteran outfielder tallied only two homers over the season’s final two months. As is the case with all of the names on this list, the Mixed LABR owners valued him much more highly than their FSTA counterparts. I don’t think his price will climb any further as the draft season progresses, but pick #138 does seem more accurate than pick #197. Gardner might be a boring choice, but don’t overlook him.
FSTA: 221
Mixed LABR: 108
Talk about differences in opinion, 113 picks? Really? Although the 2017 version of Fulmer was not as dominant as the 2016 edition, the promising righty still registered a quality 3.83 ERA and a superb 1.15 WHIP across 25 starts. Fulmer’s rough second half (5.33 ERA in eight starts) is somewhat concerning, but his ineffectiveness could be largely attributed to an elbow injury that eventually required surgery. His pedestrian strikeout rate (career 6.8 K/9) limits his fantasy ceiling to that of a mixed-league SP3, but no way should he fall outside of the top-200 on draft day. Pick #108, on the other hand, is a little too early.
But that’s just my opinion.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn
