I thought this year would be different. I thought it might be a good idea to invest a little more in starting pitching on draft day than I have in the past. Forget about the injury risk and lack of year-to-year consistency that has always led me to shop in the bargain bin to address the position. As I entered the clubhouse of the Staten Island Yankees on that chilly St. Patrick’s Day morning to assemble my Tout Wars Mixed Auction league squad, I was fully prepared to shell out a combined $45-50 for my top two starters. In this age of increased bullpen usage and in turn shorter leashes for struggling starters, drafting a pair of top-20 starting pitchers in this 15-team league was the goal.
The goal was accomplished, as I bought both Carlos Martinez ($26) and Jose Quintana ($22). Martinez was outstanding through eight starts, but he’s been sidelined due to a lat strain for more than three weeks now, though the Cardinals do expect to get their ace back this week. Quintana has been healthy but completely unreliable, pitching to a 4.30 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 11 starts while posting by far the highest walk rate of his career. A few other 20-plus dollar starters who have so far failed to live up to their draft price, for various reasons, include Clayton Kershaw ($42), Carlos Carrasco ($28), Yu Darvish ($23) and Chris Archer ($22). Meanwhile, owners of the following five guys have made out quite well with their minimal investments.
Blake Snell ($6) – Fresh off an impressive second half last season (5-2, 3.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 14 starts), Snell was a popular breakout pick for 2018. Through 12 starts this season, the 25-year-old southpaw is proving that the enthusiasm was warranted, as he boasts a 7-3 record to go along with a 2.56 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and a 9.7 K/9. But perhaps the biggest key to Blake’s success has been improved control, as he’s lowered his walk rate from 4.1 BB/9 last season to 2.9 BB/9 this year. Oh, and it just so happens that current league-leader Tim Heaney is the proud owner of Snell.
Miles Mikolas ($6) – The mysterious Mikolas was too risky for my liking when his name was called out at the auction table. The righty had resurrected his professional career by putting together a stellar three-year run in Japan, but his major league track record was uninspiring to say the least. It didn’t take long for Mikolas to demonstrate that he’s a different pitcher now, as the 29-year-old sports a 2.49 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP through 11 starts this season. Although he won’t contribute much in the strikeout department (6.6 K/9), his pinpoint control (1.0 BB/9) will help him maintain a strong WHIP even if his hit rate rises a bit. And which Tout drafted Mikolas? Yup, it’s that Tim Heaney guy again.
Gio Gonzalez ($5) – Alright, time to give myself a pat on the back. I bought Gio in last year’s auction for $2, and despite an exceptional 2017 campaign that included 15 wins, a 2.96 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 188 strikeouts, his price barely increased. I get that his walk rate was a little too high for comfort and that he benefited from a low BABIP (.261), so the sub-3.00 ERA was extremely unlikely to be repeated. But five bucks? There wasn’t much downside in drafting him at that price, and he has so far rewarded me with six wins, a 2.27 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and better than a strikeout per inning through 12 starts. Look, Gonzalez is no ace, and he’s surely due for a legitimate ERA hike from its current level. But as a high-floor mid-rotation fantasy starter, he continues to be a fine choice.
Charlie Morton ($4) – Many fantasy owners, including yours truly, were skeptical about Morton’s vastly improved performance last season, including the skyrocketing strikeout rate. As it turns out, the veteran righty’s career year in 2017 was merely a stepping stone to this season, as he’s a legitimate Cy Young candidate at the one-third mark. Through 11 starts, Morton is 7-0 with a 2.26 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 85 strikeouts across 67 2/3 innings. So much for skepticism. This is just a hunch, but I think he will cost more than $4 next spring. How much more? We’ve got four months plus an entire offseason to answer that question.
Patrick Corbin ($4) – From an ERA standpoint, Corbin is coming off his worst start of the season, a loss to the Reds in which he allowed six runs over six innings. But the Diamondbacks lefty still managed to make a positive fantasy contribution in racking up 10 strikeouts. I targeted Corbin this year as a worthy fourth or fifth starter in deeper mixed leagues with some upside and was a little disappointed, though far from distraught, when I wasn’t able to land him in any of my drafts. Maybe I should’ve been distraught. But seriously, even the most optimistic of Corbin supporters could not have seen this coming, right? They could not have seen a 2.99 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 11.7 through 12 starts, right?
I thought this year would be different. I thought wrong. Now excuse me while I begin my search for the 2019 version of Patrick Corbin.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn
