Draft and Hold League Strategies

For the junkies among us for whom baseball season starts in November, there is no better fix than a draft and hold. A typical draft and hold is either 12 or 15 teams, and generally runs 50 rounds.  The premise is that there are no pickups, no trades, no moves at all during the season.  You simply draft and hold. The NFBC and Fantrax offer these leagues for as little as $30 and going as high as you are willing to go.  There are sit and go contests and others with an overall component, where multiple leagues are combined, but today we are going to dig into a standard 50 round standalone strategy.

Yes, it is early in the preseason still.  Free agency is still in full swing, the parade of elbow pops leading to Tommy John surgeries have not yet begun, and who knows what lies ahead with the actual start of the season.  We technically do not even know for sure if there will be a DH in the National League yet (there won’t be).  But if you join one today, I promise you by the end you will feel completely prepared for the upcoming season.  If possible, I recommend pairing with a partner, as this will lead you through a discussion of practically the entire player pool.  A 12-team draft and hold goes 600 players deep, hence over-preparing you for any home league.  On a two- or four-hour clock, that is about a three week conversation which forces you into at least a basic opinion and research on every player.

The first step is to decide an attack strategy on the categories.  Generally, my plan of action is the 80th percentile rule.  Quite simply, I do not strive to win any category, I simply want to be in the top 20% of all of them.  I also put a slightly higher premium (extra 5%) onto ratios.  Average, WHIP, and ERA are purely too hard to make up if you fall behind.  Meanwhile, counting stats, especially on the pitching side, can be made up on-the-fly with some shrewd streaming.  After all, only your 23 starters’ statistics count, you might as well find a way to make the 27 bench spots contribute. 

The next step to take is to identify a projection model to work with.  Ideally your own is best, but obviously not always feasible.  I prefer to work with a very conservative model, especially with word that MLB is deadening the ball and more (unidentified) teams are employing a humidor this season.  My model leans closest to the Steamer projections on Fangraphs, favoring high end starting pitching and lower overall run production.  With these projections at the ready, I then make a very simple spread sheet, based on my 80^th percentile targets, so I can see what categories I need focused attention on as the draft progresses. Very important, rotisserie fantasy baseball is about the categories first, the positions second.  There are several ways to get to the result, but if you don’t get there, you will be turning the page on fantasy baseball in mid-August which we do not want!!! Here are your 80^th percentile targets per category for 5×5 15 team leagues this year, notice the need for 2.5 closers in order to be competitive in the category.

Next, identify positions of scarcity and those of strength. Everyone hates talking about catchers, but regardless of your strategy it is an important starting point.   Are you going to grab the early hook on JT Realmuto?  If you aren’t an experienced drafter, you should shy away as the opportunity cost of the rest of your lineup is just too great.   Or do you treat the catcher position like your fantasy football kicker and defense? In a 15-team environment that could get very dangerous, as 30 starting catchers come and go and you may end up with a near zero at the position.   This is not necessarily a bad thing, as long as you planned for it, and again planning is the key.

The position tiers together quite nicely.  As you can see, it get’s quite uncomfortable if your first catcher comes after tier three. An example of fluctuation is the Diamondbacks signing of Asdrubal Cabrera may drop Daulton Varsho out of the major league lineup.  The previously projected starting centerfielder will probably fall victim to his several remaining minor league options remaining as Ketel Marte moves back to centerfield.  There is a non-zero chance that fantasy owners may never get to take advantage of Varsho’s catcher eligibility.   Conversely, Yadier Molina’s resigning in St. Louis opens up some value for us, his ADP will rise quickly as the free agent discount is now gone.

In 2021, second base seems to be the consensus wasteland position after catcher.  Personally, I don’t buy into that, I am very comfortable holding out until late and starting a Nick Madrigal or Kolten Wong, as they are both excellent sources of late stolen bases.  If you don’t subscribe to this, you had better jump on the position early.  After DJ LeMahieu, Ozzie Albies, and Whit Merrifield, the small tier of worthy second basemen all come with question marks.     

First base is another candidate for this year’s abyss.  The position does get a bit of a boon from the addition to the player pool of Vlad Guerrero, Jake Croneworth and the emergence of Dominic Smith, but questions surrounding the health of Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins bring it back down a few notches.  Third base and shortstop are oozing with talent, while pitchers and outfielders are plenty deep just by the sheer amount of inventory on major league teams.  

As I alluded to earlier, your bench matters!  It is not just 27 fliers, attack it with purpose!  There is opportunity to utilize many different strategies. Backing up starters, pitchers to stream, rookies with potential second half impacts, injured players to return later, it all matters!  You can make up a categorical deficiency in a counting category through streaming.  By putting 20 or more pitchers on your roster, you can take advantage of two start weeks, avoid bad matchups, and bench overused relievers while maximizing your strikeout, win and save totals.  The same works just as well for stolen bases. I want no part of someone like Jonathan Villar in my lineup, but if drafted as a bench stash, you can put him up and down in your lineup and get an eight or 10 stolen base boost as you need it. 

I don’t usually get too crazy with prospects in the bench rounds, there is usually a lot that has to happen to get a good prospect into the lineup on a regular basis and producing fantasy points.  I am much more interested in adding a Joey Wendle to my bench than an Adley Rutschman that may only see a handful of at bats in September, if at all.  Perhaps the most important use of your bench is to ensure quality depth at every position.  It is, after all, a draft and hold. You will not be able to make any acquisitions when injuries and COVID-19 hit, so you need to make sure you are at least four deep at every position, at the major league level. 

Lastly, there aren’t too many situations where backing up a starter would become a must, but I would start with your catchers.   The position by its very nature lends itself to many injuries, and by getting the understudy to your starters, you can guarantee not to be in a situation to ever take a zero.  I’d also consider it when taking a player without a guaranteed role but in an upside spot.  An example of this would be if you draft CJ Cron, who just signed with the Colorado Rockies. There is certainly a path to failure, so to hedge with Greg Bird, Garret Hampson or Sam Hilliard could pay dividends.