Closers are tough to figure. Every year, between 10 and 15 closers lose their jobs. These are closers that you and I drafted. Of course, the converse of that is that every year, between 15 and 20 closers keep their jobs. While the positive sounds much better, the fact is that drafting closers is a risky proposition.
Risky, but necessary.
In a standard 5×5 league, closers are responsible for 10% of your team’s league points. In an old school 4×4, closers are responsible for 12.5% of your points. Meaning, depending upon the scoring in your league, closers have a disproportionate value compared to other players.
A large number of pundits will tell you not to worry about drafting closers on draft day, as based on the numbers, your chosen closers may very well lose their respective jobs. The latter part of that statement is true, but the former couldn’t be further from the truth. To compete in saves, you need to draft at least one top 15 closer, even if said hurler may later lose the job. Trying to find enough saves on the waiver wire to be competitive in the saves category is challenging at a minimum. Of course, you can always punt saves, but that won’t work in a national competition.
The same pundits who tell you not to draft closers will argue that due to the flux in closers holding their jobs, closers are available on the waiver wire. This has been the prevailing theory for years by pundits experienced in lower-stakes leagues.
While it may be the prevailing theory, it’s dead wrong.
Sure, a number of closers will lose their jobs. Death, taxes, and your closer imploding before being replaced by someone you thought about handcuffing, but didn’t. Those are three guarantees in life. So what? Getting the replacement closer is not as simple as it sounds, even though the replacement may be available on the waiver wire.
The leagues that employ “first to claim gets him” waiver priority are filled with trollers just waiting to pounce once a closer has a blow up. In those leagues, getting the newest closer is a matter of luck and perseverance.
The leagues that employ the “last place gets first priority” method are just fine, but if you are in last place, perhaps saves aren’t your only problem.
FAAB leagues are fair for waiver claims, but as having an additional closer or two is a luxury that no good team will pass upon, almost every team in your league will consider bidding on a new closer.
Oh, did I mention that the newly anointed closers rarely keep their new jobs?
Last year, Jeanmar Gomez started as the Phillies’ closer and earned a save on April 3. After getting beat up on April 9, 11 and 14, the Phillies announced that they were going with Joaquin Benoit as their new closer. Teams in the NFBC participated in a bidding war, with the average winning bid on Benoit north of 300 FAAB (out of 1,000 available for the entire season). Winning bidders smiled broadly when Benoit pitched a perfect ninth inning to earn the save on April 15. That was the last save Benoit would earn in 2017 as he lost his job shortly thereafter.
It’s not always that the new closer isn’t any good. Trades play a part. Last season, the Tigers replaced closer Francisco Rodriguez with Justin Wilson. Yet another bidding war for a new closer. Wilson went on to notch 13 saves before being shipped to Chicago. Not bad, but 13 saves don’t equate to a quality fantasy closer.
Injuries play a part as well. Last year, Shawn Kelley started off as the Nationals’ closer. He earned four saves by April 21, but was thereafter replaced by Koda Glover. Yet another bidding war with huge wagers in leagues where Glover was available. The reliever went on to earn eight saves from April 22 through June 6, but hurt his back on June 10 and didn’t pitch again.
Then of course, there’s the situation where fantasy teams invest in the closers in waiting, only to see the original closer maintain his job for the entire season. Ask Archie Bradley owners who waiting all last season for the anticipated fall of Fernando Rodney, a fall that never came.
For every Corey Knebel who gets the closer job and runs with it, there are a half dozen Joaquin Benoits, Justin Wilsons and Shawn Kelleys.
And the Games Have Already Begun
Last week, we learned that Mark Melancon would be out “a couple of weeks.” In Giants speak, that could mean that Melancon will be out of the closer role for a couple of weeks, or that he will be out of throwing off a mound for a couple of weeks, or that he will be out of action for a couple of weeks until a doctor recommends surgery. Frankly, we have no idea what the Giants mean. So, with Hunter Strickland handling the stopper duties for now, bidding began in earnest this past weekend.
I was fortunate to pick up Strickland in a daily waiver FAAB league for 11% of my budget. That pickup was less than five hours after the news broke. Clearly, I was lucky.
In the NFBC leagues, I put out a bid of 14% of my budget. I didn’t hold out any hopes of getting Strickland, but at 14% I’d have been happy if luck landed my way. No chance. In then NFBC Main Event, Strickland went for an average of 39% of the winning bidder’s season-long budget, with a high bid of 711 FAAB (out of 1000). Possibly more importantly, the average second-high non-winning bid was over 300 FAAB. Dozens of teams bid more than 30% of their FAAB to attempt to get a potential closer, only to be denied.
Strickland might keep the job and garner 40 saves. If so, one team in each league will reap the benefits. The rest of the league, well, as the pundits say, “closers are available on the waiver wire.” Except that for all but one team in each league, each time, they aren’t.
Best of luck.
Buster
