The first Sunday of the 2020 NFL season is in the books, which means it’s time to overreact to every performance in hopes of gaining a competitive edge. The 24.5-point average through fourteen of sixteen games is more than 2013’s record 23.4 ppg per team and there was no lack of electric performances, especially in the early window. Below, we’ll investigate all the relevant fantasy outcomes and trends to help your team get ahead going into Week 2 and the rest of the season.
Top QBs Came to Play
Through 13 games and 26 quarterback performances, 15 signal callers scored at least 19 points, headlined by Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers who were the only two to score over 30. Wilson was extremely efficient, completing 31-of-35 passes with 4 TD, and threw all over Atlanta’s weak defense. Seattle’s typically run-heavy offense attempted only 20 runs; expect that to increase against stronger defenses. Contrary to last season’s surprising trend, Green Bay went pass heavy as Rodgers attempted 44 passes, more than all but two games last season, while also tossing four scores. Both these performances were no doubt aided by game script but still encouraging nonetheless, especially in Rodger’s case.
The sleeper performances at the position were those of Cam Newton, Mitchell Trubisky and Gardner Minshew, each of whom scored between 20 and 26 points. Newton’s 25.7 points are sixth best at the position and no doubt driven by 15 carries for 75 yards and 2 TD. This can’t be expected on a weekly basis but is a great sign that the Patriots trust him near the goal line. Trubisky passed for 242 yards on an inefficient 20-for-36 with 3 TD and 0 turnovers. Despite the solid performance it doesn’t appear repeatable, as Chicago was forced to throw after being down 23-6 entering the fourth and Trubisky can’t be trusted to protect the football. Minshew was a popular sleeper pick heading into the season and confirmed those beliefs after passing 19-for-20 for 173 yards and 3 TD with no turnovers in a comeback win. The efficiency won’t exist every week but Minshew can be expected to throw for more yards as a result of trailing in most games.
The two most disappointing performances at the position came from Carson Wentz and Drew Brees, who were both held under 15 points. Wentz passed for 270 yards and 2 TD but coughed up 3 turnovers and was sacked 8 times against a stout Washington front in an unexpected loss. Better weeks are ahead once weapons Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery return from injury. Brees simply wasn’t needed in a wire to wire victory during which Buccaneers turnovers led to easy scores and is a quality buy low candidate if you’re a fan.
Volume Driven Running Back Leaders
Volume is king at the skill positions and that was on display week 1. Josh Jacob’s 35.9 points resulted from 25 carries for 93 yards, 4 receptions for 46 yards and 3 rushing TD, pacing the position by more than seven points. The sophomore appears primed for a second year breakout, even if it came against a leaky defense. Jacobs’s opponent, Christian McCaffrey, finished a customary second at the position thanks to a nearly identical line with one fewer touchdown. The surprising third place finisher was Colts passing down specialist Nyheim Hines who no doubt benefitted from Marlon Mack’s early departure. Hines was able to capitalize on 15 combined carries and targets to produce 73 total yards and 2 TD. If Mack misses time, Hines and fellow committee back Jonathan Taylor gain flex consideration on a weekly basis.
Most of the top backs performed well but there were a few who failed to score 10 points, including Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Le’Veon Bell and Mark Ingram. The most concerning of this group is Bell, who injured his hamstring on a 30-yard reception in the first half, accounting for over 60% of his point total before leaving the contest early in the second half. The Jets struggled as a whole against a formidable Bills defense and better days should be ahead, but it doesn’t appear Bell can return to his heyday in Pittsburgh. Chubb and Ingram faced each other and both struggled due to game script. Cleveland trailed all game which lead to an increased role for Kareem Hunt at Chubb’s expense, whereas rookie J.K. Dobbins scored both of Baltimore’s rushing touchdowns. Both backs should perform better in more competitive weeks. Ekeler and Mixon faced each other and had nearly identical lines that featured 19 carries and a disappointing single reception each. Both backs should be fine going forward and the low scoring game definitely contributed to the subpar production. The one concerning factor for Ekeler was the emergence of rookie Joshua Kelley who rushed for 60 yards and the Charger’s lone touchdown on 12 carries. Kelley appears to have standalone value in addition to being a key handcuff.
Five Receivers Stand Out
Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones notched Week 1 performances a tier above the rest. Adams led all players with 41.6 points thanks to 14 receptions on 17 targets with 156 yards and 2 TD in a throwback air attack from Green Bay’s offense. If this trend continues, Adams has the potential to finish as the top receiver in fantasy. Teammates Ridley, Jones and Russell Gage all eclipsed 100 yards receiving on 9 receptions and 12 targets in a contest that saw Atlanta forced to the air in a comeback bid. Ridley was on the receiving end of both of Matt Ryan’s touchdowns this week but all three should be plays on a weekly basis. In Hopkins debut alongside Kyler Murray, he was responsible for more than 65% of all receiving yardage on a dominant 16 targets and scored 29.1 points despite failing to reach the end zone. This was a supreme debut and incredibly encouraging for both Murray and Hopkins. The always consistent Adam Thielen finished third at the position with 6 receptions on 8 targets for 110 yards and 2 scores. Minnesota was forced to throw more than they’d like, so this could be a potential sell high, but Thielen should still finish as a low end WR 1 this season.
Other than the obvious Michael Thomas, not many wide outs had down weeks. Don’t overreact to Thomas’ ghastly 3 receptions for only 17 yards as New Orleans was leading all game and Tampa Bay clearly was bent on not letting Thomas beat them. Use this as a buy low opportunity if the team rostering Thomas in your league gets nervous. Among the others, Odell Beckham logged only 22 yards on 3 receptions but saw a healthy 10 targets which implies better weeks are ahead. Continuing that trend, D.J. Moore and T.Y. Hilton both caught 4 balls on 9 targets with just over 50 yards receiving. I’m more concerned about Hilton because of Phillip Rivers propensity for throwing to backs and tight ends compared to receivers. Rivers’ former favorite target, Keenan Allen, saw 8 targets from new starter Tyrod Taylor but only mustered 4 receptions for 33 yards. Better days will be ahead but the Chargers passing offense struggled against a seemingly porous Cincinnati defense. In the late game, Cooper Kupp recorded 4 catches and 40 yards on 5 targets on a run-heavy day but expect the Rams to throw more in the coming weeks. If you believe in the potential of any of the players mentioned, don’t hesitate to buy low as this could be the lowest any of their stock falls.
Loose Ends
At the TE, D/ST and K positions I’m only going to mention Dallas Goedert and the Washington Football Team, as both players currently lead their position in scoring. On the day, tight ends ended as expected with the exception of Goedert who recorded 8 receptions on 9 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown, proving he has standalone value and should be rostered in all but the shallowest of leagues. There’s clearly a connection with Wentz, although the returns of Sanders and Jeffery will increase competition for touches. Last year, the Washington Football Team was a bottom ten unit but week 1 saw them record an impressive 8 sacks and 3 turnovers in a surprising victory. Philadelphia was dealing with injuries but this defense could excel when the matchup is favorable.
