In my constant quest to find value in the later rounds, it is generally easier to identify hitters who can give you a boost in a category or two than it is to uncover potential pitching gems, especially starters. Middle relievers with their positive ratios, and sometimes strikeouts, can be found there, but potentially solid starters, not so much.
This season the Milwaukee Brewers offer two intriguing pitchers with ADPs above 300 that could be the exception. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are both currently battling for a spot in the Brewers’ rotation, and the challengers are far from formidable. Aside from Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson in the top two spots, the competition is Zach Davies, a questionable Jimmy Nelson who apparently suffered a setback in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, and a young, talented, but so far inconsistent Freddy Peralta.
First, let’s take a look at the 26-year-old Woodruff. He was an 11th-round pick in 2014 after an injury-plagued and less than stellar career at Mississippi State, but quickly righted the ship, being named Milwaukee’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2016 while leading all of the Minor Leagues in strikeouts with 173. After a strong Triple-A showing in 2017, a subsequent hamstring injury and a non-descript debut at the Major League level, Woodruff became a valuable bullpen piece for the Brewers in 2018, making seven appearances during the September stretch run, spanning 12 innings, and allowing only one earned run. However, his performance in the postseason was the real eye opener, when he struck out 20 in 12.1 innings and walked just three while allowing three earned runs.
Overall, his 2018 numbers were impressive, pitching to a 3.61 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, while striking out 9.99 per 9 innings. His FIP of 3.23 indicates more improvement may be on the horizon, and his Hard-Hit rate of 31.9% is well below the MLB average.
Most impressive of all might be his 53.1% groundball rate, which scouts say can be attributed to a mid-90s heavy sinker he mixes in with an above average slider that gets him a lot of swings and misses, along with an adequate changeup.
As far as downside, Woodruff might have an innings limit, and with such a talented bullpen, Brewer starters have a short leash anyway (last year, not one starter averaged above 5.2 innings per start). Nonetheless, Woodruff, at his current ADP of 316, has the look of a low-risk, high-reward starter who can offer above average numbers in four categories.
Like Woodruff, the 24-year-old Burnes is battling for a rotation spot this spring, and although he was used exclusively as a reliever in 2018, he was groomed as a starter after being a fourth round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2016. In 2017, pitching at the Single- and Double-A levels, Burnes made 26 starts, finishing with an ERA of 2.10 at Double-A, and striking out nearly a batter per inning.
Despite a rough start at hitter-friendly Colorado Springs to open 2018, Burnes got the call to the big club and provided valuable innings out of the bullpen during Milwaukee’s run to the playoffs. In 30 appearances spanning 38 innings, he recorded an ERA of just 2.61 and a WHIP of 1.05, while striking out 35.
This spring, Burnes is adding a sinker and a changeup to give him a nice five pitch mix. The additions to his very effective fastball/slider combination, and occasional curve, will help considerably when dealing with that troublesome third time through the order.
Like Woodruff, there could be an innings limit as a result of stretching him out, or just because of the Brewers’ great bullpen. Despite that possibility, Burnes looks like a potential steal at an ADP of 333. The big right-hander could very easily top 150 innings with solid ratios and close to 150 Ks.
