What we are seeing in MLB right now with injuries is unbelievable. So many players have been put on the IL this season, many with long-term injuries, but many of them have the same thing in common. Let’s look into that for Strike 1.
Strike 1
I cannot remember the last time this many fantasy relevant players have been put on the IL, especially this early in a season (and of course, they all happen to be on my team!). Chris Owings is out because of thumb surgery. Anthony Rendon is on the IL because of a groin strain. Cody Bellinger and Starling Marte have hairline fractures – Bellinger in his fibula and Marte in a rib. Christian Yelich is on the IL with back soreness. Trent Grisham has missed time because of a quad injury. Ronald Acuna has been on the shelf because of an abdominal injury. Juan Soto is out with shoulder discomfort. And those are just a handful of position players dealing with injuries.
Julian Merriweather is going to be out long term with an oblique injury. Multiple pitchers are going to miss time all because of biceps strains: Ben Heller, Elieser Hernandez, Edward Cabrera, and A.J. Puk.
I cannot help but notice a thread that is common throughout most of the injuries affecting players early in the season – most of them are soft tissue injuries. When was the last time we saw multiple players miss time this early in the season with oblique injuries? Lorenzo Cain, George Springer, and now Trent Grisham have all experienced quad issues within a few weeks of each other. These types of soft tissue injuries have been a serious problem already and will continue to affect players throughout the season.
MLB players had a weird year last year, where they ramped up like normal for Spring Training, then all of a sudden had to shut it down. Then they had to ramp back up again to play a third of their normal schedule. Now that they are trying to get their bodies back on track for a long grinding season, what we are seeing is that their bodies are having a hard time adjusting back, and they are ending up with lots of soft tissue injuries, especially to quad, hamstring, back, and oblique muscles. This is something that fantasy baseball managers have to factor in to this season. Stack your watch list and have a plan A, B, and C in case your players deal with injuries.
Strike 2
For fantasy managers who are dealing with injuries, here are some players you should try to scoop up in your leagues if they are available.
Second baseman Jed Lowrie is old, but he is doing really well right now and the background metrics look like he is legitimate. He does have a high BABIP, but his plate discipline looks like it did in 2019 when he hit .267 with 23 home runs.
If you have listened to my podcast (Fastball Fantasy Baseball), you know that I am going to recommend Evan Longoria as a replacement player if you are dealing with injuries at third base. His BABIP is up a little bit, so expect the average to drop some, but there are many things to like early in the season. He has improved his walk rate and plate discipline numbers, he has the best exit velocity of his career, and a 50% hard contact rate.
If you are like me, and you are struggling to field a healthy outfield because so many players are out, pick up Enrique Hernandez. The strikeout rate is not great, but the home runs are starting to come and the Red Sox offense is clicking. Hernandez has nearly matched the amount of barreled balls from last season in 30 fewer games, so I like the prospect of him continuing to hit for some power while also scoring runs.
Fantasy managers looking for pitching help should turn to Houston pitcher Jose Urquidy for help. He looks mediocre on the surface with a 4.50 ERA, but his metrics show signs that improvement may be on the way. His walk rate is only 2.25/9, his home run rate is .56/9, and his strikeout rate is 10.56/9. Those are not numbers of a mediocre pitcher. It seems like bad luck has been affecting him most. His .357 BABIP compared to a .269 career BABIP could mean that the ERA will drop soon, and advanced ERA metrics like FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all think he is closer to a mid-3 ERA pitcher.
Strike 3
Finally, I want to wrap up by looking ahead, hopefully into the near future, to when we might see some prospect call-ups.
The Toronto pitching staff has many question marks. Hyun Jin Ryu is the only locked in, top-level starter in that rotation. Steven Matz and Robbie Ray look good right now, but we cannot expect that they maintain this hot start with their histories. Ray has already allowed nine walks in 10 innings. Ross Stripling and Tanner Roark do not look good right now. T.J. Zeuch is not a star and was likely called up to fill in short term. I think Toronto should be calling up Alek Manoah soon. He is a hard throwing righty, and has three solid pitches, and could immediately slot in as one of the better arms in that rotation.
Another player who SHOULD get the call soon is Seattle outfield prospect Jared Kelenic. Mitch Haniger is the only outfielder who is doing well for the Mariners right now. Kyle Lewis is returning from the IL, so there is a good chance other outfielders like Taylor Trammell will continue to see time, although nobody in the outfield beyond Haniger is an offensive threat right now. This is prime time for Seattle to call up Kelenic to play left field.
It is also time for Tampa to call up Wander Franco. Joey Wendle is the only Rays hitter with middle infield eligibility that is hitting right now, and he is primarily playing third base. Willy Adames, who is Tampa’s current shortstop, is batting a paltry .180. The Rays are getting nothing from their middle infield right now, so calling up Franco would fill a huge hole offensively. The Rays are a team that is trying to compete in the AL East, so calling up Franco now makes all the sense in the world.
