One common error I see in DFS number crunching (and season long leagues, for that matter) is in analyzing matchups based on yards allowed or fantasy points allowed to a particular position, alone. Earlier in the year, I heard a lot of how ‘bad’ the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Seattle Seahawks run defense was. This take was based solely on stats, stats that were skewed by a couple of big plays here and there. There’s a difference between shutting down a running game 33 out of 35 plays, then allowing two 50+ yard touchdown runs, as opposed to getting frequently sliced and diced for 5 to 10 yards a carry throughout the game.
Quarterback
Carson Wentz ($8,700) – why get cute? Wentz is the top scoring quarterback this year, has two weeks to prepare and the Cowboys secondary shouldn’t scare anyone.
Tom Brady ($8,600) – the highest total installed by Vegas and the Oakland Raiders cornerbacks can be exploited. Should be a shootout.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon ($7,800) – Jacksonville has an underrated rushing defense. When they set their mind on stopping the run, that’s exactly what they do. Melvin Gordon found tough sledding against mostly eight men in the box. The former Wisconsin Badger put up a clunker back in week 7 against Denver, but followed up that lackluster showing by shredding the porous New England Patriots defense. In week 11 we have a similar ‘get well’ situation on tap. The Buffalo Bills had trouble stopping both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram even when they stuffed the box with 8.
Austin Ekeler ($5,200) – the undrafted rookie saw the same full box as Melvin Gordon, but was much more productive. Ekeler was quicker, faster, shiftier, and stronger in Week 10. Perhaps Gordon’s foot was still holding him back. I’d avoid EkeNFFler in cash games but he’s a perfect GPP ‘punt’ at running back. Keep in mind, after receiving important carries down the stretch, the youngster fumbled and was on the sideline next series. That makes it hard to predict touches in the short term.
Kareem Hunt ($8,600) – the rookie from Toledo is due after disappointing owners the last few weeks. The Kansas City Chiefs, with their week 10 bye, have had two weeks to rest up and game plan for a 1-8 team just playing out the string. Game flow favors this elite back getting back on track.
Wide Receiver
Bruce Ellington ($4,600) – there’s a lot of value this week at wide receiver, but Ellington might be the sneakiest. With Will Fuller likely to miss this week’s tilt with cracked ribs, and Patrick Peterson on DeAndre Hopkins, the athletic Ellington could continue to see a lot of looks (eight targets each of the last two weeks). Note: Ellington injured his left hand late in the game, so be sure to monitor practice reports this week and make sure he’s 100%.
Sterling Shepard ($6,500) – 22 targets, 16 receptions, and over 200 yards the last two weeks. Sign me up. The chiefs keep their only good cornerback on one side. He doesn’t shadow. Eli will be playing from behind and the Giants only other pass catching weapon is Evan Engram.
Davante Adams ($6,700) – simply another target volume play at a cheap price. Obviously with some risk with Brett Hundley under center.
Dontrelle Inman ($4,900) – riskiest receiver on the list, but he is a #1 at near the minimum price. He might see some coverage from the Detroit Lions Darius Slay, so this is another punt option.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($7,500) – the best Tight End in the league with the best matchup of the week. Yes you can play both Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt in the same lineup.
Evan Engram ($7,400) – one of the most consistent tight ends in football ever since Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall were lost for the season. The rookie is one of only two legit offensive weapons Eli Manning has, and the Giants will be trailing…big.
Mercedes Lewis ($4,900) – ok I don’t really recommend this one. I’m paying up for one of the two elite options listed above. However, if you have your heart set on punting Tight End this week, Lewis is your huckleberry. The Browns have arguably the best run defense in the league, and their cornerbacks are decent. This funnels a lot of targets to opposing tight ends. Lewis is rarely involved in the offensive game plan, but we all saw what he’s capable of in London when he produced a hat trick(three touchdowns). Just don’t get mad if he posts one catch for seven yards.
Defenses – Jacksonville ($5,600) – at Cleveland, Arizona ($4,600) – at Houston.
Follow Greg @Liquidhippo.
