I never want to give up. That approach has actually been a detriment in recent years in the XFL, Xperts Fantasy League, a keeper format in which I compete with a number of distinguished over- age 40 industry friends.
My team lacks enough of a low-cost keeper player core to enable me to compete, but it has taken me two years too long to accept it.
Sitting unhappily in last place, I recently made a trade which was a white flag move for this year, but could help down the road. I gave up multiple years of Reds closer Raisel Iglesias plus catcher Mike Zunino and starter Cole Hamels in return for Twins infield prospect Nick Gordon, Rangers outfield prospect Leody Taveras, a fill in catcher and a first-round draft pick in our supplemental draft next March.
With a 40-man roster already loaded with prospects, between their presence and a run of pitching injuries, after giving up Hamels and Iglesias, I actually had to go with two disabled list pitchers in my active roster for several weeks.
The XFL offers a monthly free agent draft, held on the first Sunday evening of the month. My status in the standings affords me the first pick. Perhaps you recall my article about the buzz created by my first overall selection last month, San Diego outfielder Franmil Reyes.
This time around, I clearly needed two pitchers – and that is the maximum quantity of drops I could come up with, anyway. After a brief talk with the first-place owner who inquired about trading for my pick, I decided to hold onto it and try to secure a keeper player for 2019.
My choice came down to three young starters, all recently called up and currently at the back of their respective rotations – Shane Bieber of Cleveland, Freddy Peralta from Milwaukee and the one I knew the least about, Jonathan Loaisiga of the Yankees.
Coincidentally, I had watched Bieber handle the Cardinals offense with relative ease last time out, but because the 23-year old is more of a control artist than a strikeout threat, I placed him third.
Peralta, 22, is the youngest of the trio, with the gaudy strikeout totals and perhaps the best chance to contribute here in 2018. But my current team will likely finish in last with or without him.
Still, it caught my attention when I saw a reference to Peralta being the first pitcher since at least 1908 to strike out at least five batters and allow less than three hits in each of his first four MLB outings. However, on Sunday afternoon, just before our draft, Peralta made a less impressive start, yielding five hits and three runs over five innings against Cincinnati.
That leaves Loaisiga, a 23-year old who barely received a mention at the back end of Yankees prospect lists this past off-season after missing much of 2016 and 2017 due to injury. When Masahiro Tanaka went down with hamstring injuries, the Yankees brought the Nicaraguan native straight up from Double-A, but Loaisiga actually opened 2018 in high-A.
In his first three Major League starts, Loaisiga pitched so well that he could stay on, but to do so, he would need to squeeze out a much-less interesting member of the Pinstripers’ starting five, Domingo German. In his most recent outing prior to our draft, Loaisiga carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning at Philadelphia.
However, with Loaisiga coming off two injury seasons, his pitch counts and innings thrown are being closely monitored. That could restrict his value in 2018. But again, this is not about this year – it is about rebuilding for the future.
If I was pushing to win now, Peralta would be my man and Bieber would be second. But I have to suppress my competitive gene and work the rebuilding plan instead.
Further, there is a huge league-specific difference between the pitchers that I have not yet noted. Both Bieber and Peralta recently passed the career MLB 20-innings pitched threshold, while Loaisiga is still below it.
That means that in future seasons, Bieber’s and Peralta’s salaries will escalate in annual $5 increments. Because Loaisiga is still considered a farm player by league rules, his salary will only grow in $3 blocks.
While that may seem relatively insignificant, it could mean as much as two additional years of control down the road.
Here is why.
Next season, to keep Bieber or Peralta, their cost will be a $5 base plus the annual $5 increment, or $10 total. The next year, their salary would grow to $15 and then $20. So, assuming their peak value ahead is around $20, I would have 3 1/2 years of control.
On the other hand, Loaisiga would cost $5 plus $3 in 2019. His salaries would then increase to $11, then $14, then $17 and finally to $20. In other words, all things equal, I would have 5 1/2 years of control of Loaisiga before he becomes theoretically unjustifiably expensive.
I considered that to be significant enough to seal my decision.
Of course, the rub is that Loaisiga has to show enough this year to justify being kept for $8 this fall and then continue to warrant an escalating salary. Even if he is sent down for the short-term upon Tanaka’s return, Loaisiga should be back in time to answer this question for the off-season. I just have to hope that neither Bieber nor Peralta soon become Cy Young Award contenders, as I decided to pass on them.
In our draft, Peralta and Bieber went fifth and sixth respectively. The third pick was another $+3 pitcher who had not been on my radar, Ryan Borucki. Hmmm.
Footnote: After allowing three runs in four innings to the red-hot Braves on Monday, Loaisiga was optioned to Triple-A by the Yankees, that evening, though he could be back as soon as a scheduled double-header next Monday, July 9.
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
