Ah yes! We all know that point in the draft. You’re in the middle rounds and you’ve got a saves problem. The top tier “Closers” evaporated quicker than milk on a barbecue. Mid-tier arms with a lower case “c” were also taken… hundreds of years ago. You’ve maybe got some saves yourself – but not enough to be comfortable. Reliable back-end stoppers got pushed up even more than you were expecting, and you’ve had to change the plan. Looking at the remaining list of names is nauseating. You feel a small wave of heat rush to your face and a burp escapes. Time to decide. Make a move? The bottom of the barrel? The stink tier? You remember the taste. Daniel Bard’s twenty saves came with a 5.21 ERA in 2021. Time to justify it in your head. Going skills over roles likely means giving up on the overall. Mark Melancon just led the league in saves. Maybe a sip? Just a little sip.
Here is a look at a few of the murkier bullpens to start the season.
Jake McGee, SFG – 15 SV
Jake McGee had 31 saves for the San Francisco Giants last year. I for one was not expecting it, even after acquiring him halfway through summer in my 4×4 NL-only league. Is the 0.91 WHIP repeatable? Unlikely. A number around 1.20 seems more reasonable, with most projection systems on Fangraphs ranging from 1.15-1.25. The ERA should stabilize around 4, with anything under that being a positive outcome. It’s fair to project around a 24%K over the sixty or so he gives you which should end up about a strikeout per inning. He has lost some of his dominance since his days at Tampa Bay where he was routinely posting over 30K%.
After recently being named the closer by Gabe Kapler, he will probably start the season with the role being his to lose. As long as McGee maintains his stingy rate and keeps his ratios tidy, he should be able to reach the 15 save mark.
The threat: Camilo Dovall was anointed by many as the Giants closer prior to the fresh announcement from Kapler. Seems like another classic case of having skills and not the job. He was consistently going higher than McGee in ADP before Kapler anointed McGee. Combining a round ten pick on Doval and then late teens pick on McGee is an expensive price to pay for a single closer. When you throw in the possibility of Tyler Rogers plundering his handful of saves things get really scrambled.
CREATiVESPORTS founder, the late Lawr Michaels deemed it Fanticide – the act of watching players on your team pay. If you drafted Jake McGee and must watch him close out games, it is recommended you squint slightly as you would on a bright sunny day. Like you forgot your sunglasses. This should help to mitigate damage with him on the mound. Of course, for your best chance of him being successful is to not watch at all.
Kyle Finnegan, WSH – 13 SV
Finnegan finished the season as the Nationals closer after tallying 11 total saves. Although it is an admittedly uncertain position, the best presumption is he will be given the first opportunity for 2022. He did have some hiccups last year, failing to convert on 4 of his 15 chances. The main cause of his difficulty was his 11.6 BB% which resulted in a 1.48 WHIP. It won’t be a smooth ride to 13 saves.
The threat: Tanner Rainey had an excellent season in 2020. He posted a sparkling 2.66 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP over 20.1 innings and added in 32 strikeouts. In 2021 he took a sizeable step back with a 7.39 ERA and a 1.70 in 30.1 innings. Even with the unpalatable 2021 ratios Rainey posted a rate of 28K% considerably higher than Finnegan’s 23K%. Drafting Rainey costs around the same draft capital as Finnegan with both recently going in the mid 300’s.
With Finnegan on the mound, you’re going to have to do more than look away from the TV. Pull your hat down over your eyes or hide under a blanket. Turn down the sound. Staring directly at Finnegan in ninth would be an unnecessary risk to your ratios.
Alex Colomé – 12 SV
Replace Carlos Estévez with Alex Colomé and you still have the worst closer in baseball. With 155 major league saves it appears he got the job with a number on the back of his baseball card. Very likely the main stat the Rockies were looking at when adding Colomé on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, many of those saves were years ago when he had elite strikeout and walk rates. The gap between these percentages has been closing steadily since his peak relief season in 2016, where he finished with 37 saves, a 1.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
His K-BB% that incredible year was 24.8%. It fell all the way to 8.9% in 2020 and then rebounded slightly last year to 12.1%. Colomé’s K-BB% looks to be dropping more this season based on the projections at Fangraphs. These ratios of under 20% K-rate and over 8% BB-rate are generally not a recipe for success in a closer. He won’t be striking out a lot of runners and will be issuing a healthy serving of free passes. When you combine these below average metrics with the simple fact Colomé will be pitching in Mile-High city – he becomes an unappetizing option. One that costs a pick inside the top 300.
The threat: Carlos Estévez? Let’s be honest: To start the season there isn’t really anyone that appears to be challenging Colomé for the job. Estévez was handed the keys to the car at the end of last season and did his best to stay on the bumpy road. Bard had his chance last year and crashed the car. At this point I would say Colomé’s biggest peril is in fact himself. Doubtful he will be able to keep it together for many more than 12 saves.
Okay, this is turn off the TV territory. If you ended up with Colomé, it may be best to call in sick the day after your draft. You must be ready from when he pitches, especially at home in Colorado. Get your TV powered off quickly and head to another room. Anything less is an invitation for an infinity ERA.
Jake McGee, SFG – 15 SV
Jake McGee had 31 saves for the San Francisco Giants last year. I for one was not expecting it, even after acquiring him halfway through summer in my 4×4 NL-only league. Is the 0.91 WHIP repeatable? Unlikely. A number around 1.20 seems more reasonable, with most projection systems on Fangraphs ranging from 1.15-1.25. The ERA should stabilize around 4, with anything under that being a positive outcome. It’s fair to project around a 24%K over the sixty or so he gives you which should end up about a strikeout per inning. He has lost some of his dominance since his days at Tampa Bay where he was routinely posting over 30K%.
After recently being named the closer by Gabe Kapler, he will probably start the season with the role being his to lose. As long as McGee maintains his stingy rate and keeps his ratios tidy, he should be able to reach the 15 save mark.
The threat: Camilo Dovall was anointed by many as the Giants closer prior to the fresh announcement from Kapler. Seems like another classic case of having skills and not the job. He was consistently going higher than McGee in ADP before Kapler anointed McGee. Combining a round ten pick on Doval and then late teens pick on McGee is an expensive price to pay for a single closer. When you throw in the possibility of Tyler Rogers plundering his handful of saves things get really scrambled.
CREATiVESPORTS founder, the late Lawr Michaels deemed it Fanticide – the act of watching players on your team pay. If you drafted Jake McGee and must watch him close out games, it is recommended you squint slightly as you would on a bright sunny day. Like you forgot your sunglasses. This should help to mitigate damage with him on the mound. Of course, for your best chance of him being successful is to not watch at all.
Kyle Finnegan, WSH – 13 SV
Finnegan finished the season as the Nationals closer after tallying 11 total saves. Although it is an admittedly uncertain position, the best presumption is he will be given the first opportunity for 2022. He did have some hiccups last year, failing to convert on 4 of his 15 chances. The main cause of his difficulty was his 11.6 BB% which resulted in a 1.48 WHIP. It won’t be a smooth ride to 13 saves.
The threat: Tanner Rainey had an excellent season in 2020. He posted a sparkling 2.66 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP over 20.1 innings and added in 32 strikeouts. In 2021 he took a sizeable step back with a 7.39 ERA and a 1.70 in 30.1 innings. Even with the unpalatable 2021 ratios Rainey posted a rate of 28K% considerably higher than Finnegan’s 23K%. Drafting Rainey costs around the same draft capital as Finnegan with both recently going in the mid 300’s.
With Finnegan on the mound, you’re going to have to do more than look away from the TV. Pull your hat down over your eyes or hide under a blanket. Turn down the sound. Staring directly at Finnegan in ninth would be an unnecessary risk to your ratios.
Alex Colomé – 12 SV
Replace Carlos Estévez with Alex Colomé and you still have the worst closer in baseball. With 155 major league saves it appears he got the job with a number on the back of his baseball card. Very likely the main stat the Rockies were looking at when adding Colomé on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, many of those saves were years ago when he had elite strikeout and walk rates. The gap between these percentages has been closing steadily since his peak relief season in 2016, where he finished with 37 saves, a 1.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
His K-BB% that incredible year was 24.8%. It fell all the way to 8.9% in 2020 and then rebounded slightly last year to 12.1%. Colomé’s K-BB% looks to be dropping more this season based on the projections at Fangraphs. These ratios of under 20% K-rate and over 8% BB-rate are generally not a recipe for success in a closer. He won’t be striking out a lot of runners and will be issuing a healthy serving of free passes. When you combine these below average metrics with the simple fact Colomé will be pitching in Mile-High city – he becomes an unappetizing option. One that costs a pick inside the top 300.
The threat: Carlos Estévez? Let’s be honest: To start the season there isn’t really anyone that appears to be challenging Colomé for the job. Estévez was handed the keys to the car at the end of last season and did his best to stay on the bumpy road. Bard had his chance last year and crashed the car. At this point I would say Colomé’s biggest peril is in fact himself. Doubtful he will be able to keep it together for many more than 12 saves.
Okay, this is turn off the TV territory. If you ended up with Colomé, it may be best to call in sick the day after your draft. You must be ready from when he pitches, especially at home in Colorado. Get your TV powered off quickly and head to another room. Anything less is an invitation for an infinity ERA.
