Christmas came on St. Patrick’s Day, and while Santa brought me some cool gifts (Clayton Kershaw and Christian Yelich), he also left a whole lot of coal (Chris Davis and Brandon Belt). Ok, it wasn’t really Christmas but you already knew that. Instead, it was the NFBC Main Event in Las Vegas. The computer, which incidentally hates me, selected me as the 15th (last) choice in KDS (the Kentucky Derby System where the team picks their slot in the draft), giving me the 11th overall pick. This was actually my fourth highest pre-selection, so as hard as the computer tries to mess with me, it cannot succeed.
1.11 (11th overall) Clayton Kershaw – Picking 11th I was fairly certain that I’d have one of the following waiting for me: Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, or Chris Sale. Seated next to NFBC auction champion Jeff Cox (more on that later), who was selecting 12th, Jeff was planning on taking Corey Kluber, and I assured him that Kluber was not on my radar.
Things didn’t exactly work out as Jeff or I planned. Unlike the league to our left, where Jose Altuve went 4th, the start of our draft went exactly to form. Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner were the first off the board. Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts went fifth through seventh respectively, and all was still going as planned. Bryce Harper was selected 8th and then the tag team of Dale and Greg Morgan opted for Corey Kluber in the 9th spot. The Morgans’ choice of Kluber over Clayton Kershaw was curious, but Team Morgan has had great success in these competitions, so there is no way I’m going to question the selection. Stanton went 10th, leaving me with Kershaw. No complaints here. Jeff Cox chose Chris Sale, who I believe will be better than Kluber anyway.
2.5 (20th overall) Jose Ramirez – I had spent the last week agonizing between Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. Both have great upside, and Ramirez has duel position eligibility, but come Saturday morning, I had conclusively determined that I wanted Lindor. My new friend Jeff Cox was deciding between Lindor and Joey Votto, and ultimately chose Lindor. (Snipe #1 for Cox). Ramirez is fine, he’ll hit 20+ home runs, steal 20+ bases and hit north of .300. Still, I would rather have Lindor.
3.11 (41st overall) Christian Yelich – I soon learned that picking in front of Cox was far better than picking after him. I had targeted the 26-year old Yelich and had hoped that he’d make it to me at 41. I expect Yelich to be a beast in Milwaukee, with 100/100, 25+ home runs and 20 steals.
4.5 (50th overall) Jonathan Schoop – Mistake alert. I had wanted Marcell Ozuna, but Cox wanted him too, and chose him 49th (Snipe #2 for Cox). This left me with a choice of a second starting pitcher (Zack Grienke, Aaron Nola and Jose Quintana), speed (Tommy Pham and Billy Hamilton), or a middle infielder (Corey Seager or Schoop). I was worried about Seager’s health so I jumped early on Schoop. In retrospect, I should have gone with Seger, as the shortstop pool evaporated much faster than I expected.
5.11 (71st overall) A.J. Pollock – Speed is oh so important in a national competition, and Pollock has the ability to not only hit 20+ home runs, but to steal 30+ bases. Indeed, if the humidifier plays the role that many expect, speed might be even more important in Arizona than in recent years.
6.5 (80th overall) Felipe Rivero – The first five rounds saw four relievers taken, with Roberto Osuna the last pick in the 5th round. Cody Allen went 2nd in the 6th, followed by Ken Giles and Edwin Diaz. If I didn’t take a closer here, I wouldn’t be getting a first tier closer. I had wanted Diaz, but of course so did Mr. Cox (Snipe #3 for Cox). Rivera was a nice consolation. Incidentally, four more closers were taken by my 7th round pick.
7.11 (101st overall) Jon Lester – I’m probably higher on Lester than everyone else, but he isn’t that old (34), doesn’t have that many innings (2,184), and other than last year, he’s been solid. I’m ok with him as my #2.
8.5 (110th overall) Shohei Ohtani – Look, I wanted Salvador Perez, but so did Mr. Cox (Snipe #$4 for Cox). I’ve won two NFBC Main Event Baseball Individual League titles, but haven’t finished better than 12th overall, so what I’ve been doing thus far has been ok, but not great. Why not try to catch the proverbial lightning in a bottle? Ohtani might be as bad as he’s looked this spring, or he might be unhittable. I’m willing to gamble in the 8th round and bypass the Zack Godleys and Alex Woods of the world, and see what Ohtani brings.
9.11 (131st overall) Nomar Mazara – I had to reach early, as I didn’t think Mazara would make it back to me in the 10th. The 22-year old knocked in 101 with 20 dingers last year.
10.5 (140th overall) Jonathan Villar – Villar was a 2nd rounder last year, but he had a really, really bad year. Milwaukee is much improved this year, and if Villar starts at second, he could be special.
11.11 (161st overall) Brandon Morrow – Closer and if healthy he could be scary good.
12.5 (170th overall) Yadier Molina – I didn’t want a black hole at catcher, and Molia can still play.
13.11 (191st overall) Jonathan Lucroy – See above. He couldn’t be as bad as he was last year, again, could he?
14.5 (200th overall) Michael Fulmer – If healthy, he’s a stud in the 14th round.
15.11 (221st overall) Michael Conforto – When healthy, he’ll be a stud in the 15th round.
16.5 (230th overall) Cole Hamels – Well, he used to be good.
17.11 (251st overall) Tim Beckham – I should have taken Seager in the 4th, or any of the other shortstops I kept passing on.
18.5 (260th overall) Kole Calhoun – His ceiling and floor are about the same.
19.11 (281st overall) Stephen Piscotty – One year removed from a top 10 round pick. The trip back home has to help.
20.5 (290th overall) Felix Hernandez – He’s like Hamels, only four rounds later.
21.11 (311st overall) Chris Davis – The first base pool isn’t as deep as it seems. Yes, he is my starting first basemen. The only positive is that I got Davis later than anyone else drafting in the first week of the NFBC.
22.5 (320th overall) Brandon Belt – Low ceiling yes, but if he stays on the field, he can contribute a bit.
23.11 (341st overall) Jorge Soler – This is the year. Really. I said that last year too, but this year I really mean it.
24.5 (350th overall) Dominic Leone – I think that sooner than later he will be the Cards’ closer.
25.11 (371st overall) Tyler Mahle – I still have $1000 FAAB left.
26.5 (380th overall) Tyler Glasnow – His minor league numbers are amazing.
27.11 (401st overall) German Marquez – Maybe he can pitch for me in weeks that he has a start in San Diego or San Francisco.
28.5 (410th overall) Daniel Mengden – He might have a starting job and this was the 410th pick.
29.11 (431st overall) Brad Miller – Once upon a time, he was thought to be good.
30.5 (440th overall) Tyler Skaggs – Once upon a time, his parents thought he was good.
Every NFBC Main Event team has holes after the draft. That’s the nature of a 15-team league. My first base is weak, my short is borderline weak, by catching is just ok, and my starting pitching can go in any different direction. That being written, I’m cautiously optimistic that with some creative FAAB, this is a competitive team.
Best of luck,
Buster
