There’s a point in every season when we need to take stats seriously. We can no longer use the “small sample size” disclaimer. I’m not sure we’ve reached that point just yet, but we’re getting close. Yesterday, for the first time this year, I scanned the leaderboards in the various 5×5 roto categories. Although I wasn’t necessarily surprised by what I saw (I do learn a thing or two by examining every box score on a nightly basis), it was important to see all the names on a clear list.
Do I own any of these players in at least one of my leagues? If so, how do I feel about them going forward? Would it be a good idea to make a “sell-high” trade, or would I be missing out on a career year? So, without further ado, let’s run through each of the ten categories and comment on a player who somewhat surprisingly ranks among the top-10.
Batting Average (minimum 75 at-bats)
Nick Markakis: .341 (7th) – What’s gotten into Markakis? Actually, the veteran outfielder has been an underrated fantasy asset for a while (especially in OBP leagues), and he does sport a strong .288 AVG for his career. But, obviously, maintaining an average in the neighborhood of his current mark will be a tall order. The biggest surprise with Markakis has been his power, as he’s already launched six homers through 31 games, this after registering only eight home runs across 160 games last season. Still, his trade market will probably be lukewarm, so fantasy owners might as well just hold onto him.
Home Runs
Mitch Haniger: 10 (Tied for 5th) – Haniger was swinging a hot bat at this time last year (four homers and 16 RBI in April) before an oblique injury slowed his season, so hopefully his 2018 campaign will be injury-free and the 27-year-old can finally enjoy a breakout season. Judging from his minor league numbers, 25 homers to go along with a helpful batting average seems like a reasonable expectation, so he definitely has mixed-league staying power.
RBI
Jed Lowrie: 31 (1st) – Who would have expected this? One month into the season, Lowrie has already tallied nearly half as many RBIs as he did in 2017. An unsustainable .378 AVG with runners in scoring position certainly has a lot to do with it. By now, we know what Lowrie is. He’s a decent starting MI option in deeper mixed leagues, nothing more and nothing less. If someone in your league is convinced that he’s more, go ahead and try to work out a trade.
Runs
Ozzie Albies: 32 (2nd) – I really liked Albies heading into this season and regret not owning him in more than one league. The problem is that many of my league mates liked him too, so he seemed to be far from a bargain on draft day. In Mixed Auction Tout Wars, the Braves second baseman went for $19. As it turns out, that was a big bargain. If you’re an Albies owner in a non-keeper league and you get a trade offer too good to pass up, by all means consider it. On the other hand, there’s something to be said about hanging onto him and enjoying the ride.
Stolen Bases
Tim Anderson: 10 (Tied for 4th) – Although Anderson continues to get on base at a low rate, the difference between this season and last season is that he’s actually running when he does get on base. The White Sox shortstop is basically doing what we expected him to do last year, which is good news for owners who drafted him on the cheap. An end-of-season total of 20-plus homers and 30-plus steals is well within the realm of possibility.
Wins
Rick Porcello: 5 (Tied for 2nd) – From Cy Young award winner to fantasy waiver wire material to…fantasy ace? I’ve never been a fan of Porcello, mostly because of his year-to-year inconsistency, and I’m not about to change my view based on his performance through seven starts this season (5-0, 2.14 ERA, 0.82 WHIP). Do note that Porcello has held the opposition to a .252 BABIP, a number that is bound to rise.
Saves
Brad Boxberger: 10 (3rd) – Boxberger missed a good chunk of the last two seasons due to injury and entered 2018 as one of a few ninth-inning options for the Diamondbacks. Considering the unpredictable nature of saves, I guess it’s only fitting that he ranks this high in the category. The walks (7 BB in 13 IP) are concerning and Archie Bradley is one of the best second-in line closer options in the game, so Boxberger will need to pitch well to keep the job all year. He could do it, but simply assuming 30-plus saves would be a mistake.
Strikeouts
Gerrit Cole: 77 (1st) – Depending on which fantasy pundit you asked this draft season, Cole was either a fine value pick as a potential fantasy ace who you could get at a fraction of the cost or was destined to disappoint. I found myself somewhere in the middle, leaning slightly towards the optimistic end, so when I drafted Cole to serve as my SP2 in three of my leagues, I felt good. Well, I’m feeling more than good right now. Regression is inevitable, especially when it comes to the 13.7 K/9, but we are now far enough into the season where Cole would really need to collapse to not finish the year as a top-15 starting pitcher.
ERA (minimum 25 IP)
CC Sabathia: 1.39 (4th) – After struggling mightily when first making the conversion from power pitcher to crafty veteran who relies more on control and deception to get hitters out, Sabathia’s transition is complete, and it has been an overwhelming success. He remains an injury risk, and expecting a sub-3.00 ERA, let alone a 1.39 ERA, is probably unrealistic. But CC is a fairly safe mixed-league starter, and we could not have said that a few years ago.
WHIP (minimum 25 IP)
Sean Manaea: 0.66 (1st) – Although it seems like Manaea has been around for longer, this is only his third big league season, so there’s still time for the 26-year-old southpaw to establish himself as a high-end starter. Or maybe he won’t reach that level and will settle in as more of a mid-rotation guy. Maybe it’s crazy to take a 0.66 WHIP seriously, but it’s equally crazy to not be thrilled about having Manaea on your fantasy squad.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn
