Another week, another look at undervalued players based upon the NFBC early ADPs. This week, I’m turning my attention to shortstop, a position that has in the past been, at least for some pundits, an area of general weakness and lacking in real depth. If that was true then, it certainly isn’t anymore. Let’s look at the top 10 shortstops by ADP (with Steamer 5×5 projections):
1. Francisco Lindor (ADP 4) [103 runs, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 21 SB, .286]
2. Trea Turner (ADP 10) [96 runs, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 41 SB, .287]
3. Alex Bregman (ADP 11) [95 runs, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 5 SB, .279]
4. Javier Baez (ADP 13) [76 runs 28 HR, 88 RBI, 17 SB, .269]
5. Manny Machado (ADP 15) [93 runs, 34 HR, 96 RBI, 9 SB, .288]
6. Trevor Story (ADP 19) [84 runs, 31, HR, 96 RBI, 19 SB, .271]
7. Adalberto Mondesi (ADP 42) [73 runs, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 42 SB, .252]
8. Xander Bogaerts (ADP 47) [85 runs, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 10 SB, .286]
9. Carlos Correa (ADP 48) (84 runs, 26 HR, 91 RBI, 4 SB, .265]
10. Gleyber Torres (ADP 54) [71 runs, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 9 SB, .257]
Ten shortstop qualified players in the first 54 picks is pretty impressive. See anyone missing?
Last year, sporting an injured elbow in Spring Training, Corey Seager was coming off draft boards in the late third/early fourth rounds, giving him an ADP in the neighborhood of 50. Drafters knew he was hurt but were gambling on him being able to play through the injury and put up numbers with the bat.
That gamble failed, as Seager went under the knife in early May, giving his owners just 101 rather unproductive at bats. By all accounts, Seager’s Tommy John surgery was a success, and he is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Burned owners aren’t having any of that, though, which creates a buying opportunity.
As of this writing, Seager’s NFBC ADP stands at 91, the first pick in the seventh round.
Lindor and Machado shouldn’t be in the same sentence with Seager, as they are significantly better. Turner and Mondesi are projected to fight for the MLB stolen base titles, so they have a different value than Seager, as well. Baez and Story could fight for 20 stolen bases, something that Seager won’t achieve in three years combined, so they have a different value as well.
That leaves Bregman, Bogaerts, Correa and Torres with similar 5×5 skill sets as Seeger. Once again, using Steamer, here’s how those four compare to Seager:
Home Runs
Correa 26
Bregman 25
Bogaerts 25
Torres 25
Seager 24
SBs
Bogaerts 10
Torres 9
Bregman 5
Seager 4
Correa 4
Average
Bogaerts .286
Seager .284
Bregman .279
Correa .265
Torres .257
RBI
Correa 91
Bregman 87
Bogaerts 85
Seager 79
Torres 74
Runs
Bregman 95
Seager 92
Bogaerts 85
Correa 84
Torres 71
RBI plus Runs
Bregman 182
Correa 175
Seager 171
Bogaerts 170
Torres 145
Sure, Steamer is but one projection site, but the numbers are compelling. Bregman appears to be a bit ahead, but the other four are pretty close. Bogaerts has an ADP of 47 (earliest 39, latest 61), Correa is at 48 (earliest 36, latest 68) and Torres is at 54 (earliest 34, latest 85), so the drafting public agrees.
However, as mentioned, Seager’s ADP current sits at 91 (earliest 58, latest a remarkable 131).
With stats that are projected to mirror those of Bogaerts, Correa and Torres, but two rounds later, Seager presents an opportunity for an advantage to drafters.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
