Projection systems have a hard time with young players because computers can’t extrapolate 300 plate appearances into a full year’s worth of statistics with much confidence. Too many variables; too small of a sample size. Artificial intelligence has only developed enough emotional literacy to know that Ozzie Albies will be pretty good this year.
But what’s the ceiling, computer?!? We’re probably better off that the robots aren’t self-aware enough to indulge these flawed drafter instincts. (Yet.)
What most projection systems can do, like good fantasy players, is recognize bankable production by players who have done it before. This week, I used the projections to single out some players whose consistency is being under-appreciated. The following players are projected by Steamer to score 75 or more runs and are being drafted on average after pick 168 — end of the 14th round in 12-team leagues.
Why runs? It’s an overlooked category in 5×5 with a lot of meaning built in: these guys are probably getting on base a lot; they’re likely hitting at the top of the order; maybe they’re good baserunners or on high-scoring teams.
Why filter the results to 15th round and beyond? At this point most people have dabbled in both the hitting and pitching pools and are looking to fill roster holes. Why not do it with players who have bankable playing time and a history of production?
To be honest, I didn’t expect this list to be comprised of so many veteran players, but it makes sense. And these are exactly the types of guys I like to reinforce my early picks with during the middle rounds. They’re solid players whose managers — and the computers — expect to perform like they have in their recent pasts. (Keep in mind that projections err on the cautious side.)
NFBC ADPs from 203 drafts spanning Feb. 22-March 22; min picks included.
Carlos Santana (172.73; min pick: 121)
Steamer projection: .255/81/28/81/4
Consistency across the board: games played, runs, RBIs and power that is likely to play up in Philly.
Brett Gardner (177.18; min pick: 111)
Steamer projection: .258/80/15/56/14
People are expecting a downturn by the 34-year-old, but last year’s .264/96/21/63/23 was money in the bank for owners who gave the Yankee leadoff man a shot. Remember those monsters hitting behind him?
Ian Kinsler (180.39; min pick: 132)
Steamer projection: .255/80/19/64/12
Another leadoff hitter with seemingly nowhere to go but down. Kinsler’s .244 BABIP last year foretells a batting average increase (career .286 BABIP), and the Angels lineup got better this offseason, too.
Matt Carpenter (194.53; min pick: 129)
Steamer projection: .261/80/18/64/3
Concerns over the shoulder are suppressing his ADP, but the Cardinal three-hitter has been a sneaky source of runs, home runs and RBI over the years.
Marcus Semien (220.03; min pick: 144)
Steamer projection: .252//77/21/68/12
Still just 27, Oakland’s slugging shortstop is one season removed from hitting 27 bombs. A wrist injury last April contributed to a drop to 10 home runs in 85 games last year, but five projection systems landed on exactly 21 dingers this year — plus he could be batting leadoff.
Dexter Fowler (241.33; min pick: 181)
Steamer projection: .259/75/15/58/9
A solid veteran bat who does a little bit of everything. Fowler had his best power output last year with 18 home runs in just 118 games.
Tim Beckham (255.47; min pick: 134)
Steamer projection: .253/75/20/67/8
Here’s a situation where the computers are giving the benefit of the doubt to a former No. 1 overall pick after only a single season of top production. The Orioles middle infielder actually spent parts of four seasons as a pitcher, so it’s hard to bank on a 28-year-old with a high GB% and an inflated 20.6% HR/FB rate. But the price is right if you want to take a shot.
Shin-Soo Choo (258.43; min pick: 170)
Steamer projection: .259/78/20/66/9
I’ll repeat what I wrote two weeks ago about Tokki I: “Sure, he’s 35, but in the 18th round of a 15-team league, what’s not to like about 22 home runs, 78 RBI, 12 stolen bases and 96(!) runs? This isn’t a dream scenario — it’s what Choo produced last year in 149 games.”
Cesar Hernandez (259.76; min pick: 176)
Steamer projection: .273/77/8/50/15
Here’s a case where you actually are taking a slight hit in two categories, although the stolen bases make up for some of it. The underrated keystone man might have top prospect Scott Kingery breathing down his neck, but he’s still a solid late-round MI play or cheap auction pickup.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
