To this point, we’ve been talking about NFFC draft strategy using a conventional approach, attacking NFFC drafts by playing the percentages which gives you the best shot of winning that league. This isn’t the only way to approach things. What if you have numerous entries and prefer to diversify a bit with a contrarian angle. Zig when others zag and zag when others zig. I’ve heard numerous pundits recently rip zero RB theory to shreds, and in one sense they’re not wrong. It’s not the best approach if all you care about is winning your smaller 12-team or 14-team league. Nevertheless, deprioritizing running backs is a valid zag, while everyone else has gone back to zigging(ie. loading up on RB’s early).
Overlooked in all of the histrionics bashing the strategy, last year, Kareem Hunt was available in the 10th round, Alvin Kamara was available even later. Both ended up top four overall running backs in 2017. Having those two in your stable doesn’t seem like a disaster to me. In fact, that type of approach is more attractive than ever as we head into the 2018 draft season. If you look at ADP, zero RB theory is dead. One of the reasons it’s been so difficult to execute in recent years, is because half the people in the league were doing it or something similar. You wouldn’t end up with two WR1’s, you’d end up with a WR1 and a WR2, just like a number of other teams in your league.
This year, Receivers are getting pushed down the board, which means a start of Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas and Travis Kelce along with an elite QB is certainly possible. That would give you the top scoring Tight End, the top scoring Wide Receiver, an elite quarterback, and another WR1 as your #2 wideout. That should create quite an edge at all of the non RB positions both in your league and nationally. If these players stay healthy and you hit on your RB’s you just might be in the thick of things Week 16. Remember, we’re not talking about beating out 11 other teams, you have to outpace hundreds or THOUSANDS of other teams to take home the big prize. Rather than draft a bunch of players at market value, and hoping you get ‘lucky’ that all of them outperform their projections, why not maximize certainty with as many elite players as possible and then you need just two backs to outperform expectations, as opposed to most of your team.
Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean you should take a WR ahead of Ezekiel Elliot, LeVeon Bell, or Todd Gurley. Shoot for a draft slot somewhere between 6-8 and be flexible. If the draft you are in bucks the ADP trend and WRs go earlier than expected, don’t settle for the leftovers at the end of the position run, but if things fall into place, you can stack top notch WRs, a QB and a TE.
So then, who is getting drafted pretty late and has RB1 upside? The list is very short at the moment. Some lottery candidates will emerge during the preseason, and certain handcuffs are an injury away from RB1 status. At the moment drafting both Carlos Hyde and Nick Chub is very viable. One of them should emerge as an RB1 at some point. Jerick McKinnon has a back surgery on his report card, which makes him an injury risk. Joe Williams looked outstanding during the 2017 preseason, but for whatever reason didn’t get an opportunity. Locking up both Joe Williams and Matt Breida corners the San Francisco backup ball carrier market; one of them could thrive in Kyle Shanahan’s system should McKinnon go down. A healthy Andrew Luck means opponents will no longer be able to stack the box, opening up running lanes for either Marlon Mack or Jordan Wilkins.
Stay tuned and we’ll expand this list once there’s a little more preseason film available.
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