A sad fact of the beautiful game of baseball and our beloved derivative fantasy baseball is that sometimes, the players get hurt. No one ever wants injuries to occur, and they can sometimes be very difficult or even impossible to predict. Pitchers who have otherwise shown exemplary health can get hurt swinging a bit, for example. Hitters can step on a base funny while running the bases. But while we feel for the athletes and always hope for as speedy a recovery as modern medicine allows, we should also be pragmatic in determining what an injured player missing time will mean for his teammates and opponents.
This is by no means a comprehensive list, but here are some of the more impactful injuries that have occurred this spring, as well as some analysis of the projected fallout from a fantasy perspective.
Eloy Jimenez: Out 5-6 months with a ruptured pectoral tendon
Fantasy Impact: Obviously this is devastating for Jimenez owners, but there will be opportunities created elsewhere. The White Sox hinted at using Andrew Vaughn in LF, allowing Jose Abreu to alternate between 1B and DH as he is accustomed to doing. I’m not convinced that Vaughn will stick in LF though, and on days where he and Abreu are both in the lineup, we will likely see Leury Garcia in LF. I don’t know that you want to run to the waiver wire in your standard 12 team 5X5 to pick up Leury Garcia given the speculative nature of the opportunity, but he is someone to keep in mind for DFS purposes, especially if he finds himself in a compelling lineup spot.
Zac Gallen: Out indefinitely with hairline fracture in pitching arm
Fantasy Impact: This is an interesting situation for Gallen and the DBacks rotation, as the team has yet to commit to a specific timeframe for his return. Could it be weeks? Months? Could he suffer a setback and miss the whole season? The answer to all of these is yes, which creates chaos and uncertainty, but also the opportunity to act aggressively without complete information, something that the risk loving fantasy player should be looking to do at every opportunity. The most immediate and direct beneficiary of course is Taylor Clarke, who was not going to be in line for a rotation spot, and now likely will be in Gallen’s absence.
Of course, Clarke is not really anything special, but as is often said when it comes to mediocre, innings eating pitching, the best ability is availability, and Clarke has shown the ability to stay healthy in the past. He is a competent enough 5th starter so that if you happen to find him on a two-start week against non-threatening bats, feel free to take a stab.
The most interesting piece, though, might be Gallen himself. With the injury occurring so close to most drafts and opening day, recency bias will likely depress Gallen’s draft price beyond what it should reasonably be, so the astute owner, especially in dynasty formats, can take advantage of the short term dip in value and profit from Gallen’s likely short term setback.
Kirby Yates: Tommy John surgery
Fantasy Impact: Yates was the presumptive closer for Toronto, given both track record and financial commitment. With a team that was likely to end up in the win column more than their fair share, the role is lucrative from a fantasy perspective. While we know Yates won’t have it now, we don’t know for sure who will have it, but we can make some educated guesses.
Jordan Romano was incredibly productive in a limited 14 inning sample in 2020, and while some of that is likely noise due to the small sample, but there were also some mechanical changes that give us hope he may be a dominant 9th inning force and hold onto the job all season. If I were forced to pick who the primary beneficiary, my money would be on Romano.
However, this is far from a sure thing, and there are of course other options waiting in the wings even if Romano gets the gig out of the gate but falters. Rafael Dolis would be the next man up, and while control has been an issue for him at times, he has been effective enough for long enough and with enough experience in high leverage situations that he could expect to have some success. The other options would be the underwhelming and unexciting David Phelps and Tyler Chatwood.
Reds Starting Pitchers Sonny Gray (back), TeeJay Antone (hip), Michael Lorenzen (shoulder) out for various and unspecified periods
Fantasy Impact: Well the Reds aren’t going to be very good to start the season. While I didn’t even mention that Reds stalwart 1B Joey Votto, the off-season departures and now injuries to the pitching staff are going to leave the cupboard pretty bare to start the season. Yes, Luis Castillo is great and should be very difficult to hit.
But after that? It gets pretty gross pretty quick. Command+ and analytics darling Tyler Mahle has yet to put it together consistently, and has been blown up more often than you would like. Wade Miley is not an MLB 3rd starter anymore, and one might reasonably wonder if he’s an MLB starter anymore at all. Behind the two of them is reclamation project Jeff Hoffman, who, yes, is leaving Coors Field behind as his home park, so it stands to reason he may improve, but it isn’t as though Great American Ballpark is some sort of pitchers haven. In fact, it’s actually quite a bit easier to hit a home run in Cincinnati than it is in Colorado, and with the three true outcomes direction in which the game is trending, Hoffman may have more problems than solutions in his new digs.
Perhaps you noticed that is only four pitchers, three of whom come with considerable question marks. That’s problematic as well, since generally teams like to use a minimum of five capable starting pitchers, and the Reds currently only have one, and three other fillers masquerading as such. Sure, Lucas Sims and even Amir Garret could be used as stopgaps, but they already have defined bullpen roles, and so it would be a bit like robbing Peter to pay Paul, as the Reds bullpen will need to be used heavily in the early going.
The winners here are teams that will be playing the Reds early in the season. A depleted rotation that even when back at full strength won’t be stretched and an overworked bullpen should be fantasy gold more often than not, you’ll just want to avoid those pesky Luis Castillo starts. Additionally, from the sound of it, the Reds will, in addition to not having Joey Votto for some period, be starting Eugenio Suarez at shortstop. So it’s not as if this underwhelming pitching staff will be bailed out by the defense behind it either.
