OK, now we’re getting serious. After participating in the annual Street & Smith’s magazine mock draft, a 12-teamer which I discussed here, a virtual draft room once again became my temporary home last Wednesday night for a Baseball Prospectus mock curated by Mike Gianella. This one was a 15-teamer, and at this early stage of the draft prep season, when I’m not yet an expert of the player pool, the three extra teams certainly made a difference when it came to the difficulty level. Those last few rounds were tough, but that’s a good thing as I now have a better idea as to what I need to study.
Speaking of studying, most owners begin by thinking about the early rounds. I follow a reverse approach, first identifying potential late-round targets to determine which positions or categories I can afford to wait on, allowing me to use my early-round picks to address other areas. And with two mock drafts now in the books, I can begin to make a list of these undervalued guys. Here are a handful of players, all selected outside of the top-200 in both mocks, who could deliver a significant return on investment.
David Dahl – Remember him? If not, let me remind you that Dahl batted .315 with seven homers, 24 RBI, 42 runs scored and five steals over 63 games in his 2016 rookie campaign. A back injury limited him to just 19 minor league rehab games last season but Dahl, who turns just 24 in April, is expected to be fully healthy for spring training. This across-the-board producer offers top-30 OF potential at a small fraction of the cost.
Yuli Gurriel – Coming off a quality first full season in the Majors in which he batted .299 with 18 home runs and 75 RBI, Gurriel is being routinely overlooked in early mock drafts. Why? Maybe his age (33) has something to do with it, but hitting in a dangerous Astros lineup, would it really be shocking to see him finish 2018 with 22-25 homers and 85-90 RBI to go along with a .300 AVG? Draft Gurriel as a cheap starting CI in mixed leagues and enjoy.
Todd Frazier – How far has Frazier fallen? Well, his 2017 NFBC ADP was 80. That’s right, 80! One year later, no one wants him. While I do understand the lack of interest, fueled by a home run drop from 40 to 27 coupled with an abysmal .213 batting average, he batted only .225 in 2016 yet his ADP was still 80. With only modest counting stat improvements, Frazier could post 30 homers, 85 RBI and 80 runs. If you can stomach the batting average, he’s well worth considering to fill your CI or Utility spot regardless of where he lands in free agency.
Archie Bradley – A former high-end starting pitcher prospect, Bradley appeared to be on the path to bust status. But it all changed last season when the hard-throwing righty pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, wrapping up the year with a 1.73 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and 79 strikeouts across 73 innings. Japanese import Yoshihisa Hirano figures to compete with Bradley for Arizona’s closing gig this spring, but Bradley should be viewed as the favorite. I’d say that by mid-March, Bradley has a better chance of being a top-100 selection than ranking outside of the top-200.
Cole Hamels – I’ve previously mentioned that I will never draft Hamels again, and that might still be the case. But his stock has plummeted even further than I expected, to pick #216 in one draft and #254 in the other. Let me say that I’m at least a little intrigued. Can the former fantasy ace serve as a viable fifth or sixth starter in mixed leagues in 2018, health permitting? It won’t cost much to find out.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @ZachMLB
