As the calendar turns to September, it’s time to focus on fantasy football. Fantasy baseball is certainly still important, but giving advice on the waiver wire is too difficult as it is impossible to know who is available or might be available in any given league. In one of my NFBC leagues, James Paxton was cut loose. He went for $99 Sunday. This late in the year, that’s like a million dollars. Indeed, I haven’t had $99 available in any of my leagues in weeks. So, let’s turn to football.
I participated in a family/friends league this past week. The league, more about pride and bragging rights and not finishing last than anything else, has been going for six years now and includes nine college students (yes, we start ‘em young out here) and me. One would think that I’d have an advantage over college students who have to study physics and organic chemistry every day and night and have no time for fantasy. OK, perhaps not.
It’s a 10 team half-point PPR league with some modifications to make standard ranking lists less helpful. We auction the starting players (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Defense, 1 Head Coach) with $200 and then snake draft the six reserves for each team. As a result, getting relative values ahead of time on what players may go for is rather challenging.
Auctioning with college students is also a bit more difficult than being in an auction with established players, and even more challenging than auctioning against pundits. The college students come in with a varied amount of knowledge and often interesting draft strategies. Predictability is out the proverbial window.
Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley ($83 each) were the two highest-valued players, thrown out shortly after David Johnson garnered a bid of $75.
The defending three-time champion, Jason, a sophomore at UCSB, decided to go big on running backs, figuring in this relatively shallow league, he could find serviceable wide receivers on the free agent wire. Going with an extreme stars/scrubs strategy, Jason spent $191 on three running backs (Ezekiel Elliott $68, Saquon Barkley $63 and Melvin Gordon $60) and filled the rest of his roster with $1 players, including Andrew Luck (we only auction off 10 QBs), Golden Tate, Allen Robinson, Delanie Walker). As Jason has won this the past three years (and also an NFFC Primetime League Championship in his first attempt last year), I won’t criticize his methods.
Blake, a student at Stanford who reportedly spent an inordinate amount of time contemplating his auction strategy, bought both Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson, filling his roster with Amari Cooper ($12), Larry Fitzgerald ($14), and $1 players including Patrick Mahomes, Trey Burton and Marshawn Lynch. With a large number of quality receivers available (we only draft two per team), Blake’s weakness coming out of the draft may be fixable as the season progresses.
Kelvin, a junior at UCSD, also went with a modified stars/scrubs strategy, taking Odell Beckham ($70) and Kareem Hunt ($68), along with Travis Kelce ($30). Kelvin went big on Aaron Rogers ($11) and filled his roster with $6 and cheaper players.
Jordan, a junior at Oregon, went with high-end receivers (Antonio Brown $75 and Julio Jones $60), but soon realized that he was in dire need of a running back, spending an astounding $51 on LeSean McCoy to pair with $2 Tevin Coleman. While I don’t expect the NFL to move on the McCoy legal situation anytime soon, Jordan has to be concerned with that backfield, especially considering how relatively shallow the running back position appears.
Mason, a football player at Azusa Pacific, tried a more balanced approach, with five of his seven skill players costing double digits (DeAndre Hopkins $58, Leonard Fournette $56, Royce Freeman $20, Adam Thielen $15, and JuJu Smith-Schuster $12), along with $7 quarterback Deshaun Watson. Mason is reasonably deep but relies upon an injury-prone Fournette and an unproven Freeman to keep his backfield competitive. My money is on someone, anyone, else taking the championship trophy.
Michael, a baseball player at Occidental, spent a remarkable $34 on Zack Ertz as he had saved money early in the draft. He ended up with one big money player (Alvin Kamara $67) along with Ertz, Davante Adams ($35), Doug Baldwin ($22) and Lamar Miller ($21). It could be a long year for young Mike.
Johnny, a junior at Arizona, played near the middle, eschewing the big-ticket players and instead settling for a number of second-round types, including Devonta Freeman ($46), Mike Evans ($41), Rob Gronkowski ($36), and Jordan Howard ($30). As he was reasonably frugal, Johnny could still afford Josh Gordon and the suspended Mark Ingram. Johnny has minimized his risk by playing the middle but he doesn’t have any standout high-floor players for a league this size. With Evans inconsistent, Gordon unpredictable, and Ingram out for the first four weeks, Johnny could be looking at a 1-3 start.
Noah was the highest bidder in the Gurley stakes, following that up with a $57 Michael Thomas and not much more. He spent $15 on Carson Wentz and $12 on Jarvis Landry and then is hoping for production from Jay Ajayi ($7) and Brandin Cooks ($7), among others. Noah has proven very astute on the waiver wire in past years, and it looks like he will be there quite often again this season.
Jack, a junior at UCSB, apparently forgot that we had $200 to spend in the auction. Actually, he may not have forgotten, but he was unable to pull the trigger early enough to spend that money, ending the auction with $43 leftover. When he was bidding, Jack picked up Keenan Allen ($49), Christian McCaffery ($40), Joe Mixon ($29) and Stefon Diggs ($16). With $43 left, his $15 bid on Kenyan Drake could have gotten him Leonard Fournette and a much more competitive team. In the meantime, Jack is the odds-on favorite for the last place, Sacko, punishment.
I came into the auction wanting to go stars/scrubs, but with competition from Jason and Kelvin, I decided to see where the auction would take me. I’m not exactly comfortable with my final destination. I overpaid for both running backs (Dalvin Cook at $59 and Jerick McKinnon at $36), as the remaining options were pathetic. I got perceived value at wide receiver with AJ Green ($24) and T.Y. Hilton ($14), and my flex is solid with Tyreek Hill ($34). These bargains don’t make up for my weak and potentially injured backfield. Russell Wilson could be certainly as good as every other fantasy quarterback not named Aaron, but even considering Stephen Gostkowski and the Rams defense, I’ve got issues. I have five of the NFFC’s top 29 in the ADP, the third-highest drafted quarterback, the second-highest kicker, and the second-highest defense, along with the top coach (5 points/win) in Bill Belichick, but without a single reliable stud, I will be needing smoke and mirrors to compete. At least I’m not Jack.
So, what did I learn? First off, college students have way too much time on their hands. Next, in shallow leagues, it seems worth it to spend the money on the top players because the 20th ranked running back or wide receiver isn’t necessarily much worse than the 8th best. Finally, as Jack will undoubtedly agree, it is better to pay a couple of dollars more than comfortable and overpay for a player than it is to sit back and be the richest owner with a rapidly declining talent pool.
My next auction is in Las Vegas with the NFFC in a much deeper and different league. I doubt I will end up with a backfield of Dalvin Cook and Jerick McKinnon, especially since I’m bringing the brains of the family (sons Jason and Brandon) to do the heavy lifting.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
