Following the July 31st non-waiver deadline in Major League Baseball, those of us who play in National League-only fantasy baseball formats received a second robust group of free agents in two weeks to bid upon.
This time around, the top five free agents available in NL Tout Wars were a catcher, two second basemen and two pitchers, all coming over from the American League – hitters Wilson Ramos (currently injured), Brian Dozier and Jonathan Schoop plus hurlers Chris Archer and Kevin Gausman.
As I sat down to l consider my bidding strategy this past weekend, I first looked at any potential openings on my roster. Sure enough, two starting pitchers – Carlos Martinez (return) and Alex Wood – had suffered injuries.
Next step was to look at my point accumulation to date. While the performance was relatively balanced, my pitching had fewer points than my offense. Of course, an even more important analysis is those categories where one may have the best chance to pick up points with a quick uptick in stats (and/or protect ground already earned which is at risk due to injuries). Again, pitching looks like the better place for me to invest.
In my view, however, Dozier was head and shoulders the best player available. Yet, with the second-highest FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) balance, I knew I would get the second-best free agent, anyway.
I do not consider Gausman equivalent to Archer and with Ramos likely to remain on the disabled list for at least half of the remaining time in the season, I decided to let others overpay for him. Further, I am already set at the catching position.
That narrowed my realistic choices to Schoop or Archer. I prioritized the latter based on my analysis outlined above.
I bid $329 on all of three, the minimum amount needed to best the owner with the third-most FAAB, in the sequence, Dozier, Archer, Schoop.
While I felt comfortable with my priority decisions, I thought it would be interesting to compare with my league peers. The good news (for me) is that I did not need to contact them all. Their bids did all the talking.
In the table below, you will see that eight of the 12 owners got into the bidding action on at least a subset of the five. In fact, only two Touts put in offers for all of the headline free agents.
Next is a quick and dirty summary of whether the owner currently has fewer hitting or pitching points. (What it does not do is note highest leverage categories for each owner.) The intent is to try to predict whether the Tout might be more inclined to chase a hitter or pitcher.
The center columns indicate the bid priority of each of the eight owners on the five free agents – based on their sequence and amounts of bids.
Second to last shows how the owners stacked up in remaining FAAB coming into the weekend with the final column indicating the winning owners and their successful bid amounts.
| NL Tout bidding priority | Standings need | Dozier | Schoop | Archer | Gausman | Ramos | FAAB rank | Winners |
| Andy Behrens | pitching | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Dozier $444 | ||
| Brian Walton | pitching (slightly) | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Archer $329 | ||
| Craig Mish | hitting | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Schoop $311 | ||
| Scott Wilderman | hitting | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Ramos $245 | |
| Tristan H. Cockcroft | hitting | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | Gausman $187 |
| Phil Hertz | pitching | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | ||
| Mike Gianella | hitting | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Grey Albright | hitting (slightly) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | |
| Average priority | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
Andy Behrens of Yahoo wielded the FAAB hammer and despite having a stronger offense already, could not pass on Dozier. I can’t blame him as I was in the same boat. What is different about Andy’s bids is that he is the only Tout to value Gausman more than Archer.
Interestingly, both Craig Mish, of SiriusXM and third in FAAB, and I acquired our second priority. In my case, that is Archer, while Craig (who needed offense more) added Schoop.
Also needing hitting, Scott Wilderman from our stats provider onRoto, had the fourth-most FAAB and added his third-ranked free agent and third hitter in Ramos. Apparently, Scott is not concerned that he may just receive a month of stats from the new Phillies backstop.
The owner with the fifth-most money, Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus, could have acquired Gausman, but based on his bid amounts, valued the new Braves starter lower than his other three targets. As a result, the Tout ranked seventh in FAAB, Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN, slipped in and nabbed the ex-Orioles starter.
The final row in the table indicates the average bidding priority for all five free agents, only for those who bid. Interestingly, though Archer was only the third-most popular target, he was the only player to receive offers from all eight owners. Perhaps Phil Hertz of BaseballHQ, ranked 10th in FAAB, realized his chances of getting Dozier were non-existent, so he did not bother trying.
As expected, Dozier was the jewel of the week – the top priority of six of the eight bidders. Archer was number one for the other two. Though neither Gianella nor league leader Grey Albright won any of the five free agents, their priorities best reflected the group consensus.
I hope you enjoyed this inside look into the bidding of a group of NL Tout warriors for the non-waiver trade deadline period. And if you are so inclined, wish me luck with my new acquisition Archer.
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
