Since we are at the All-Star Break, I wanted to dig into some first half stats to see which players are playing themselves into the biggest increases in Average Draft Position for 2022 fantasy baseball drafts. These players have been having epic seasons, which have increased their value so much from when they were drafted this season, fantasy managers will have to take notice and adjust their value going into next season. Of course, these players will have to stay healthy and maintain their improved play through the rest of the season for their value to truly rise.
Strike 1
Los Angeles Angels teammates Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh may see the biggest jumps in ADP out of all players for next season. Ohtani, a Starting Pitcher and Designated Hitter, was drafted in NFBC leagues at an average pick of 176, in ESPN leagues the average was 28, and in Yahoo leagues it was 190. ESPN users (mostly competing in daily moves formats) got this one right in terms of current value. There is a significant chance that Ohtani will break Roger Maris’ mark of 61 home runs in a season.
One reason for Ohtani’s increase in value is an absurd .419 ISO score, which among other things measures extra base hits. The player with the next highest ISO score is Fernando Tatis Jr. with a .370 ISO.
Ohtani’s BABIP is under .300, so he legitimately could hit in the .280s if he can get his strikeout rate down (advanced data metrics have his expected batting average at .294).
In terms of hard contact metrics, Ohtani’s barrel rate is the highest in baseball at 26% (second is Tatis at 21%), and he is tied with Aaron Judge for second in hard-hit rate at 57%. His HR/FB rate is 38%, and normally that would be excessively high and unsustainable, but because Ohtani hits ball so hard and has a 43% FB, he could keep the home run pace up.
As pitcher I think he’s a little more average as a fantasy baseball asset. His mid-3 ERA seems where it should be since the BABIP and HR/FB rate are normal. He needs to get his walks down, though. This is not meant to take away from Ohtani being an incredible baseball player, but as a fantasy baseball player, his bat will be what increases his ADP for next year.
Jared Walsh’s NFBC ADP was 218, in ESPN leagues it was 166, and in Yahoo leagues it was 223. He should easily make it into the top 75-100 players next year.
Jared Walsh looks like a .270 hitter who should hit 35-40 home runs for the next few years. He has increased his barrel rate from last season, and has increased his line drive rate, which in turn has driven up his BABIP. Some may argue his .332 BABIP is a sign of good luck, but the increase in hard contact metrics and the line drive rate in particular legitimize the BABIP.
His 31% HR/FB rate also may draw skepticism, but Walsh is putting up elite hard contact metrics. His hard contact is 40% and his hard-hit rate is 43%.
One last little tidbit that should drive up his value for next year – since his debut in 2020, Walsh is fifth in baseball in home runs, third in RBI, and ninth in wOBA, and it does not look like that production is slowing down any time soon.
Strike 2
Two utility infielders should also see a significant increase in ADP heading into next season – Jake Cronenworth of the Padres and Ryan McMahon of the Rockies. Cronenworth’s ADP in NFBC leagues was 200, in ESPN leagues it was 181, and 195 in Yahoo leagues.
Jake Cronenworth is already at 12 home runs, which has been totally unexpected. The most he hit in one season in the minors was 10. He already is a talented contact hitter and should finish the season with around a .280 batting average, but it is his power that will increase his ADP in 2022.
One big difference between this year and his previous seasons is that he has improved his launch angle. With more fly balls, he has given himself more of an opportunity to hit home runs. If he can keep up the pace, he could be taken around pick 125 next season.
Ryan McMahon’s ADP in NFBC leagues was 223, in ESPN leagues it was 212, and 237 in Yahoo leagues. As long as he stays healthy, McMahon should have the best season of his career this year.
This season, McMahon has been improving his plate discipline. His strikeout and swinging strikeout rates are down, and his overall contact rate is up.
He has a .305 BABIP compared to a .312 career BABIP, which shows that there is slight room for improvement to his batting average.
What fantasy managers like most from McMahon this season, though, is his power surge. His 47% hard-hit rate is 25th among qualified hitters. That rate is good for sixth among first basemen, first among second basemen, and fourth among third basemen. He also has a 42% hard contact rate, which is elite.
Not only has his hard contact improved, but also he has adjusted his launch angle to produce more line drives and fly balls than ever before, which generally lead to more home runs. There is even room for him to increase home run pace – right now he has a 19% HR/FB rate compared to a 22% career rate. McMahon should end up being a top 175-200 player next season if keeps it up this year.
Strike 3
Two shortstops will end up being drafted higher next season than they were this season: Marcus Semien of the Toronto Blue Jays, and Carlos Correa of the Houston Astros.
Marcus Semien’s ADP in NFBC leagues was 122, in ESPN leagues it was 78, and 139 in Yahoo leagues. Like with Ohtani, ESPN users got it right with Semien as well.
Semien’s 2021 production looks a lot like his 2019 season when he finished with a .285 batting average, 33 home runs, 123 runs, 92 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. That was a career year for Semien, but he may be better this year in all of those categories, except average. He is already at 10 steals and 22 home runs.
His production this season is due to improvements in barrel rate, which he has improved from 7.4% in 2019 to 10% in 2021, and hard-hit rate, which he has improved from 37% in 2019 to 42% in 2021.
Semien is another player who has adjusted his launch angle to lead to more fly balls, and an increase in HR/FB rate. His HR/FB rate this season is 7% more than his career number, but he is backing it up with exceptional hard contact and a launch angle in the “sweet spot.” Playing with Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer also gives Semien lots of chances to pick up Roto stats. The ESPN drafters nailed his value this year, and that should be where he ends up in other leagues next season.
Houston shortstop Carlos Correa’s ADP in NFBC leagues was 120, in ESPN leagues it was 128, and 125 in Yahoo leagues. Fantasy baseball managers were probably skeptical about Correa this season because of his injury history, a mediocre 2020, and the cheating scandal 2019, but he is proving his doubters and haters wrong this year.
Correa is on pace for career highs in home runs, runs, RBI, and batting average.
His better discipline numbers are leading to an increase in batting average. He improved his walk rate, strikeout rate, and chase rate this season. Some may think his batting average is BABIP driven, but improvements to discipline show it is not.
His offensive increase is also not a fluke or good luck, but a product of excellent hard contact metrics. Correa’s 44% hard-hit rate is very good, and not just for SS. His 9.5% barrel is the second best rate of his career. His HR/FB rate has room to improve, so do not be surprised to see a couple home runs out of the All-Star break. Also do not surprised if goes inside the top 100 next season.
