Whenever we observers of baseball statistics have a large enough sample that we are tempted to identify patterns, yet it is still too small to be a stable or useful sample, that is typically when the most dangerous decisions can be made. Outlier results in one extreme or the other can lead to flawed and short-sighted decision making that will ultimately be the downfall of even the strongest of fantasy managers. When we want to avoid making these mistakes, it usually requires some peaking under the hood to see what is causing the outlier results, and to what degree they might be sustainable. So without further ado… let’s dig in with…
Brandon Nimmo
While this season is not yet a month in and everyone has a small sample size, the Mets, through COVID cancellations and weather, took longer than most to play a critical mass of games and so their sample is even smaller than most teams. The stop and go start hasn’t slowed down Brandon Nimmo any, as he is off to a ridiculous start, hitting nearly .400 through 52 plate apearances while striking out at a 25% clip. This has been fueled by an unreal .567 BABIP and he certainly hasn’t been hitting for much power with only a .070 ISO.
So is this some adjustment to Nimmo’s approach that we can expect him to banjo hit his way to a batting title? Or is this a short-term aberration and the power will work its way back eventually at the expense of about 100 points of batting average?
It’s almost certainly the latter. Looking at Nimmo’s batted ball profile, he’s not doing anything different than he did last year, or in his career really. Not hitting the ball much harder or softer, or in any particular direction (up/down/pull/oppo) than before. The one noticeable difference is that he has a 60% ground ball rate thus far, which far exceeds his career average in the mid-40s.
So, best case scenario, is that his ground ball rate decreases a bit and he continues everything else, that’s more like a .270 hitter than a .400 hitter, and he’s got to add quite a bit of power in order to get back on track with career norms. If you have an enthusiastic Mets fan in your league and can sell Nimmo at what is likely his peak value because “he always seems to be on base!”, I would certainly encourage doing so.
On the other end of the BABIP spectrum, we have one very reliable asset and one high ceiling youngster that have either been getting extremely unlucky to start the season or are experiencing a change in their skill set, as the results just haven’t been there yet. The two I’m talking about here are…
Kyle Tucker and Freddie Freeman
Tucker, unlike the Jose Altuve/Alex Bregman/Carlos Correa core, was not around for the trash can scandal and so his past numbers aren’t viewed with the same level of skepticism. However, he’s not off to a great start this season, with only 11 hits in 71 plate appearances, and he’s not walking either (only 2 all season), while putting up the second lowest BABIP amongst qualified hitters with a putrid .135. Only Miguel Sano is off to a worse start.
But Tucker is very, very good. We’ve been told about it and we’ve seen it with our own eyes. He’s also hitting the ball plenty hard, and hitting the ball in the air more than he had previously. For as unlucky as he’s been when he puts the ball in play, part of that is that he’s shown plenty of power early this season, with four of his 11 hits being home runs. This is very likely a case of the line drives needing to normalize and randomness to run its course a bit, and Tucker should bring both the BABIP and the batting average numbers way up.
Similarly, Freeman is a more established and better version of Tucker, but has not started the 2021 season the way he would have liked. Yet, I am even less concerned about Freeman than I am about Tucker. He has been a remarkably consistent producer of not just surface numbers, but the underlying batted ball profile being a 40%+ hard contact guy with no discernible line drive/ground ball/fly ball lean.
To start 2021 though, he’s hitting noticeably more ground balls and fewer line drives, despite hitting the ball just as hard. This is easily chalked up to a short-term aberration that will normalize in no time.
All of that to say, if you can find an owner willing to deal either of Tucker or Freeman after these slow starts, throw the kitchen sink at them and enjoy the fruits of your labor when the production kicks in.
Jazz Chisholm
Baseball is chock full of young exciting stars that have embraced the modern game with plenty of flash to their game, while still having skill sets that would play in any era. One of the less heralded players on the cusp of stardom is the Marlins Chisholm, who is off to one of the hottest starts in MLB, and there are reasons to think he may be able to sustain some success, even if not at his current blistering pace.
For starters, Chisolm is clearly seeing the ball well. With a career high 15% BB rate and .304 ISO to start the season, he’s absolutely locked in. He is also hitting more line drives and hitting the ball harder than ever before. All of the underlying factors are moving in the right direction, and so are the results.
The only problem I anticipate with Chisholm has nothing to do with Chisholm himself, but rather the supporting cast around him. The Marlins, despite their friskiness, don’t have many threats in their lineup and just lost their biggest one in Starling Marte for an extended period. Sooner or later, teams will stop attacking Chisholm as they have no one else in the lineup to make them pay, and this will be the ultimate test for him. A young hitter staying disciplined in the face of limited pitches to hit is what turns a good young player into a star, and I’ll be watching Chisholm closely to see how he adjust as the season progresses.
