By Taylor Tarter
Since it’s still early in spring training, and there are still a few weeks left for fantasy baseball managers to draft, I’m going to stick with some pre-season topics in this column. I’m going to focus mostly on things to help fantasy managers make decisions with who they should and should not be drafting.
Strike 1
First, I want to look at some ADP “Risers and Fallers.”
Aaron Civale has shot up 11 spots on draft boards in the last week. He revamped his delivery and added a new pitch. He’s only thrown three innings, but looks good so far, notching 3 strikeouts. I think that by adding a new pitch, and working on the new arm slot, we are bound to see an increase in strikeouts from Civale. That could make him an extremely valuable asset in fantasy baseball this year, especially at pick 228.
Shohei Ohtani has also gone up 11 spots in drafts in the last week, but I’ll stay away, especially in weekly leagues where you can only play him in either a pitching or hitting slot for the week. He’s a little better in daily leagues, but I don’t think he’s going to make enough starts at bat or on the mound to be valuable at either, especially around pick 130 where he’s going. He is also an injury waiting to happen.
Gary Sanchez is off to a good start in spring, and it shows in where he’s getting drafted, around 160 overall. I’m still staying away. It is hard to pass on 20-plus and potentially 30-plus home runs from a catcher, but Sanchez’s bat to ball skills worry me. He whiffed at a 36% rate in 2020 and has batted under .200 in two of the last three years.
There are a few players, who have dropped in ADP because of injuries. The ones that worry me are the following: Lorenzo Cain with a quad injury, Dinelson Lamet coming back from an elbow injury, and JT Realmuto with a fractured thumb. Quad injuries are hard to bounce back from quickly, and can especially limit speed. Cain is an outfielder and most of his value comes from his speed. It just seems like Lamet’s injury from last season is more than he and the Padres are letting on, and that worries me. Realmuto is trying to come back from a thumb injury, but that will definitely limit his ability to hit well, especially early in the season.
Strike 2
Spring Training has begun, and we are starting to see some players off to hot starts and some players off to not-so-hot starts.
There are two second baseman who are looking good so far this spring. Gavin Lux of the Dodgers is really trying to prove me wrong. If he continues to hit through spring training, he might force his way into an everyday position. Seattle second baseman Ty France is another player using spring training to push for an everyday role. He looks great and is an excellent sleeper candidate in drafts.
Washington has a few important players off to good starts – Trea Turner, Josh Bell, and Kyle Schwarber all look good. Victor Robles isn’t getting hits, but he has 3 walks to 4 strikeouts, a nice OBP, and a couple steals. He’s someone the Nats are looking at moving to leadoff, which would increase his value and potentially increase Trea Turner’s too.
Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo is just obliterating the ball. His spring training certainly matters and this is a good sign. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is filling up the stat sheet, making a case for a spot on the major league roster.
Some players are off to not-so-great starts, which don’t worry me too much right now, but will worry me if these cold starts continue.
One of those players off to a slow start is Astros second baseman Jose Altuve. He had a rough 2020, and now is off to a rough start in Spring Training.
A few notorious slow starters are off to some worrying starts in spring. Dodgers infielder Max Muncy had a sub .200 average in 2020, and this start is making me wary of drafting him. Jose Ramirez is another slow starter, and he has not looked great in limited at bats this spring. For someone who is getting drafted as a top 12 overall player, a slow start in spring training is a little worrying to me.
Two outfielders are also off to worrying starts, and they are sliding down my rankings. Tommy Pham from the Padres looks dreadful. His start worries me a lot. White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez is another player whose slow spring training start is concerning to me.
Strike 3
Fantasy baseball managers should also pay attention to Spring Training battles, because the results of those battles could provide insight on who they should and should not be drafting in some cases. Here are a few battles I’m watching.
A few closer battles could dictate whom fantasy managers should be targeting in drafts. In Arizona, watch the battle between Joakim Soria and Stefan Crichton. The Phillies will be deciding between Archie Bradley and Hector Neris. The Padres closer situation seems murky with Mark Melancon, Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan who could all get saves. Other teams without clear closers include the Rays, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, Marlins, Reds, Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants.
There are a number of MLB teams with crowded outfields to watch in spring training. One to watch is the Cincinnati Reds outfield. Jesse Winker, Shogo Akiyama, Aristedes Aquino, Nick Senzel, and Nick Castellanos are all outfield eligible, and the Reds do not have the designated hitter position to use to get one of these players a few more at-bats. Castellanos is probably the only one of these outfielders that doesn’t end up in a platoon. Perhaps Senzel gets significant time in center field, but there are other options. Playing time in left field is also up for grabs in Cincinnati.
Playing time in Arizona’s outfield is also something fantasy managers should watch, though it all depends on where the team plays Ketel Marte. If he plays primarily second base, then Daulton Varsho should get time in the outfield, but the Diamondbacks could play either Asdrubal Cabrera or Eduardo Escobar at second or third base, pushing Marte into the outfield. Those hoping for Varsho to see significant time may be disappointed, but keep an eye on this team in Spring Training.
The Dodgers are loaded at both starting and relief pitching this season. This is both a blessing and a curse because they’ll have to make tough decisions about their roster since they have so much talent. This also makes it difficult for fantasy baseball managers who are looking for options to use from one of the best teams in baseball. Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Walker Buehler are locks for the starting rotation. The Dodgers also have David Price, Dustin May, Julio Urias, and Tony Gonsolin to start games. They may end up with a six-man rotation, but that’s still seven pitchers. That may mean they send one to the bullpen, but who do they move, and who gets replaced in the bullpen? The likely candidates for heading to the bullpen are May, Urias, and Gonsolin, and moving to the bullpen could significantly decrease their value in fantasy baseball.
The Dodgers boast one of the deepest bullpens in the majors. Aside from Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers have former closers Blake Treinen and Corey Knebel in the pen. Joe Kelly is a talented reliever, and Brusdar Graterol could be the closer of the future. The Dodgers possess great depth at pitching, but the position battles in the starting rotation are important to watch in Spring Training and could even impact the relief corps as well.
