This season would be different. For many years, a key element of my draft-day strategy was to pass on the elite starting pitchers. The cost was simply too steep at a position that was so unpredictable from year to year, from both a performance and health standpoint.
Instead of paying up for Max Scherzer, Chris Sale or Clayton Kershaw, I’d grab at least one top-20 starter and then gather a group of cheaper options who I felt could deliver a significant profit. This strategy generally worked well, though choosing the right guys when digging through the bargain bin is easier said than done. Still, I’d rather guess wrong at the low-risk price point than draft a starter in the first or second round or spend $30 on a “sure thing” ace only to watch him disappoint.
But this season would be different.
Increased bullpen usage in recent years has resulted in a decrease in the number of starting pitchers who are throwing 200-plus innings. As for the number of starting pitchers who are throwing 200 or more innings while also posting stellar ratios, let’s just say it’s a small group. So, I’d make a special effort to draft an ace, a legitimate top-10 SP.
In Mixed Auction Tout Wars, I shelled out 34 bucks for Aaron Nola. In Mixed LABR, I drafted Gerrit Cole in the second round, 26th overall. Was this course change the right move? I don’t think I’ll know for sure until the last day of September, but Cole, after an inconsistent start to 2019, has been absolutely dominant since the beginning of June, going 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 58 strikeouts over 45 innings. Nola hasn’t come close to earning his draft day price, but he’s pitched a lot better of late, allowing one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts, racking up a combined 34 strikeouts during that span.
In the end, the ace strategy might work out just fine, but I’m not so sure I’ll follow it again next season. And you can blame my hesitancy on the surprising success of these pitchers. In parenthesis, I’ve included the pitcher’s preseason NFBC ADP ranking at the position followed by his ESPN Player Rater ranking among starting pitchers entering play on Friday.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (45, 3)
Staying healthy has always been Ryu’s biggest challenge, but health hasn’t been an issue for the Dodgers southpaw in 2019. As for the on-field results, Ryu has thrived, going 10-2 with a 1.73 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP through 17 starts. Don’t forget this is a guy who registered a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 15 starts last season, and he boasts a sub-3.00 ERA for his career, so he’s more than capable of posting elite-level ratios. Although it’s hard to imagine him maintaining a sub-2.00 ERA over the course of a full season, I wouldn’t expect him to fall apart, either. There’s enough of a track record here to suggest that Ryu can at least serve as a solid SP2 going forward.
Matthew Boyd (87, 25)
Prior to 2019, Boyd had yet to post an ERA under 4.39 in any season. He’s been a different pitcher this year, recording career-bests in both walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and strikeout rate (11.9 K/9), coming out of the All-Star break with a quality 3.87 ERA and an excellent 1.12 WHIP. All is not rosy for the Tigers lefty, however, as he’s notched just one quality start in his last six tries. But he’s fresh off back-to-back double-digit strikeout games and has whiffed at least seven batters in eight of his last nine outings. Even if Boyd finishes the season with an ERA around 4.00, his fantasy owners will be quite pleased with the return on investment.
Lance Lynn (120, 12)
I think I speak for many fantasy owners in saying that I not only didn’t target Lynn in drafts this spring but actually purposely avoided him. After a brutal stint with the Twins, the veteran righty pitched better following his July trade to the Yankees, but the final stat line was still tough to stomach, and he wasn’t exactly entering a pitcher-friendly environment in Texas. What happened to the Cardinals version of Lynn, the steady mid-rotation fantasy option who contributed strong numbers across the board? That version of Lynn seemed like a thing of the past.
As it turned out, the 2019 version has been the best one yet. On Thursday, the veteran righty picked up right where he left off in the first half, blanking the Astros over seven innings while whiffing 11 batters. He has now registered quality starts in 11 of his last 12 outings. Can Lynn continue to be an every-week fantasy starter? At this point, it’s hard to doubt him. Congrats to those of you who snatched him off the waiver wire.
Lucas Giolito (131, 10)
From a pure profit perspective, no one beats Giolito, who wasn’t even drafted in the vast majority of mixed leagues but is now pitching like the ace he was once expected to become (11-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 through 17 starts). He hasn’t been as dominant lately, however, failing to earn a quality start in any of his final four outings heading into the All-Star break. Taking into account his thin track record as an elite big-league starter, owners of Giolito, particularly those in redraft leagues, should at least consider trading him while his market value is that of a fantasy ace.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
