As I work on my strategy for a 30-round NFBC draft, I divide the draft into three parts – the beginning, middle and end (pretty creative, huh?) The first 10 rounds are most important. This is where I’m going to find the most production. The next 10 rounds also have plenty of talent available. But the final 10 rounds are challenging because every pick you make is speculative.
Two weeks ago, I gave you seven principles for building a winning team in your fantasy baseball draft. My final one was to take a chance on young hitters late. In this column, I’m going to talk about post-hype sleepers who are going in the late rounds of NFBC drafts. The price is right to take a swing with a couple of these guys. If things don’t work out, you can easily cut bait.
When I use the term post-hype sleeper, I’m talking about guys that will make you hold your nose if you draft them. The opposite of a post-hype sleeper is Evan Carter, who really flashed in his 40-game run with the Rangers. Carter, with a current ADP of 133, is going inside the first 10 rounds. My strategy is to draft players with a proven track record in the first third of the draft.
The major league track record of a post-hype sleeper should repulse you. But that’s the point. You’re buying low on a player after all of the hype died down. So without any hype, here are my seven post-hype sleepers. Not all of these are going to return value. The odds are that most will wind up as waiver wire fodder, but one or two are likely to be genuine diamonds in the rough.
VAUGHN GRISSOM, SS, BOSTON RED SOX (ADP 318)
When the Red Sox traded Chris Sale for Grissom, the former Braves prospect had new life and hope. Why would Boston trade for him if they are going to leave him in the minors, or on the bench? Trevor Story is the starting shortstop, but there is a clear path to playing time at second base for Grissom. If he gets that chance, he’ll be a 10/20 player with a helpful batting average.
KYLE MANZARDO, 1B, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (ADP 327)
Manzardo’s 2023 numbers in the minors were a far cry from the .327 batting average and 1.043 OPS in 2022. But this is still the same player that was being considered a top prospect, with exceptional plate discipline and the right launch angle. He also hits the ball hard. After excelling in the Arizona Fall League, he has a real chance of winning a job on the Guardians this spring.
PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG, OF, CHICAGO CUBS (ADP 334)
Good defense doesn’t give you any fantasy points, but a good defensive player is more likely to stay on the field, and that’s something to crow about. I couldn’t resist. Crow-Armstrong is a great defender, and he’s going to be the Cubs center fielder. There’s not much hype here because of the .000 batting average in 2023 across 19 plate appearances. But he can hit and run, too.
BRETT BATY, 3B, NEW YORK METS (ADP 343)
Baty didn’t live up to the hype last year. His .212/.275/.323 slash was really bad, and that’s why you can get him in the 23rd round of an NFBC draft. Baty still has a first-round pedigree, a middle-of-the-order profile and some truly outstanding Statcast numbers at the minor-league levels. He’s gained experience that he’s certain to build on in 2024. I’m looking for a breakout.
MASYN WINN, SS, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (ADP 356)
When I saw Winn, 21, play in a spring training game, I was impressed. Then he got the call from the Cardinals last year and slashed .172/.230/.238. in 172 plate appearances. It’s worth noting that he was the the starting shortstop at the end of the year. St. Louis still wants him there in 2024, and I expect him to raise his average by at least seventy points and steal thirty plus bases.
JAKE MCCARTHY, OF, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (ADP 371)
I’m puzzled that McCarthy is ranked this low because he wasn’t that bad in 2023. McCarthy hit .243 and had 26 stolen bases in 312 plate appearances. He started the season with plenty of hype after finishing 2022 with a flourish. But he was back in the minors before the end of April, and was up and down after that. Playing time is the issue with a big glut of outfielders in Arizona.
DREW WATERS, OF, KANSAS CITY ROYAS (ADP 390)
Waters showed some speed on the basepaths, with 16 stolen bases in 98 games last season for the Royals. He also hit eight home runs across 337 plate appearances, with a .228 batting average. Waters has excellent defensive skills, but his strikeout rate of 32% and low walk rate of only 8% must improve to get playing time. He’s still worth a late flyer at this ADP.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
