In my 20 years competing in fantasy baseball leagues, I don’t remember an offseason that has gone by as fast as this one. Most of the big-name free agents were signed by the end of the Winter Meetings, which was refreshing compared to last year — when Manny Machado didn’t sign with the Padres until mid-February and Bryce Harper didn’t find a new home until late-February.
Unlike last year, fantasy owners didn’t have to wait and wait some more to make the necessary adjustments to their rankings, factoring in a player’s new team and home ballpark. Still, I always try to take some time to unwind from six months of box score checking, FAAB bidding and lineup setting. So I limited my 2020 preparation to a pair of magazine mock drafts with the plan of getting back at it in mid-January.
Well, here we are, and I’m officially ready to start.
Last week, 14 prominent members of the fantasy industry representing 14 different websites participated in the annual FSGA draft, which got underway at the FSGA Winter Conference in Las Vegas and will now continue in slow-draft style. The FSGA draft holds the distinction of being the first real non-keeper draft of the new season, and I’ve always found the results to be a useful tool in my early prep.
On that note, let’s take a look at a handful of early-round FSGA draft selections that caught my attention. The player’s pick number and NFBC Draft Champions ADP are in parenthesis.
Nolan Arenado (#21, NFBC ADP: 13)
What happened to the appeal of the high-floor player? When it comes to the early rounds, I’ve always been a conservative drafter, so perhaps I value Arenado higher than most other managers. But we’re talking about a guy who has strung together five straight seasons of at least 37 homers, 110 RBIs, 97 runs and a .287 batting average. Concerns about a potential trade out of Colorado probably played a role in his depressed price, and Arenado doesn’t steal bases, but there’s no way I’d let him fall outside of the top-15, let alone the top-20. His NFBC ADP of 13 is reasonable, though I’d argue that he’s still a top-10 player.
Jack Flaherty (#22, NFBC ADP: 22)
One notable trend in this year’s FSGA draft is that starting pitchers went early and often. Flaherty was the eighth SP off the board, so among the first 22 picks, more than one-third were starting pitchers, including four in the first round. There’s a lot to like about Flaherty. He’s young and he was nearly unhittable in the second half last year (7-2, 0.91 ERA, 0.72 WHIP). But he was rather ordinary in the first half (4-6, 4.64 ERA). Although it’s possible that the 24-year-old has truly joined the fantasy ace club, drafting him at #22 leaves little room for profit.
Jose Altuve (#27, NFBC ADP: 33)
By the time you read this, Altuve’s NFBC ADP might be 50. Keep in mind that the FSGA draft took place before the latest chapter of the Astros cheating scandal, the chapter entitled “Buzzers.” How do we now accurately measure Altuve’s fantasy worth as he’s coming off a season in which he slugged a career-high 31 homers but swiped a mere six bags? Is the power spike legitimate? Will the steals ever come back? I’m confident that the batting average will remain in the .300 neighborhood thanks to his ability to make contact at an elite level. Otherwise, I’m stumped. Track Altuve’s ADP in the coming weeks. It could be a wild ride.
Chris Paddack (#50, NFBC ADP: 51)
Paddack certainly made a fine first impression in his rookie season, pitching to a 3.33 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP while striking out well over a batter per inning across 26 starts. Still, his draft cost doesn’t factor in the possibility of at least a minor sophomore setback. I might be in the minority here but I need to see more than 26 starts before comfortably drafting Paddack as my fantasy ace. Keep in mind that after a dominant first half last year, he wasn’t quite as sharp in the second half (4.01 ERA). I’d rather take Patrick Corbin, who was selected 11 picks after Paddack in the FSGA draft.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (#65, NFBC ADP: 58)
Although Vladito doesn’t quite fit under the category of “post-hype sleeper,” the fact that he struggled at times in his rookie season, particularly in September, is good news for fantasy owners looking to grab him at somewhat of a discount in 2020. Strangely enough, his draft-day price last spring, before he had played a single big-league game, was higher than it is now. This goes to show just how massive the expectations were for the 20-year-old.
And let’s be honest, a .272-15-69-52 line in 123 games is a pretty good foundation upon which to build.
To track the FSGA draft picks in real time, click here.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
