Early Takeaways From an Early Mock

On Tuesday CBS’s Scott White organized the first of what will be weekly industry mock drafts leading up to MLB’s regular season. Tim McLeod spent literally all of five seconds choosing Trea Turner with the #3 pick, pushing Nolan Arenado down one spot from the pre-draft rankings to me at five. 

Otherwise, there were few surprises, aside from Turner in the top three. Considering that the format included both middle infield and corner infield positions, along with two catchers, it was probably less pitcher-heavy than a typical 12-team, 5×5 roto league will be, at least early on. (Find the full results here.) I actually didn’t notice the CI position at first, otherwise I would have taken Adrian Beltre or another third baseman earlier (more on that below).

Here are four takeaways from this early-preseason mock.

Bumgarner’s Fall

One early observation in the draft chat was the deal Heath Cummings got on Madison Bumgarner at pick 4.1. I had taken Luis Severino at pick 3.5, assuming the top SPs would be scooped up before my late fourth round pick. This was true for the most part, although Carlos Carrasco and Zack Greinke made it back around to me.

The rest of the room passed on pitchers in the back half of the third, leaving the Giants ace on the board for Cummings at the turn. If the Giants’ team struggles in 2017 and Bumgarner’s slight drop in strikeout rate after coming back from his dirtbike injury last year drop the big lefty out of the early third round, I’m all for starting my staff here. Greinke was also on the board longer than expected, falling to 5.2.

Third base depth

Maybe I wasn’t the only one whose focus on filling middle infield caused me to space on the corner infield spot, because third basemen were there for the taking all day. Having Arenado in my pocket — along with the selection of DH Nelson Cruz, which somewhat limited my roster flexibility — forced me to look elsewhere first. The following third basemen were taken outside the top 12 at the position:

Mike Moustakas (9.10)

Nicholas Castellanos (11.8)

Kyle Seager (12.2)

Adrian Beltre (14.3)

Eugenio Suarez (17.5)

Evan Longoria (18.10)

Early middle infield picks make the rest of the draft easier

It’s easy to look ahead at a wealth of usable second basemen and shortstops and pass on the top players early. Twice I regretted this.

With three middle infield slots to fill on a roster with extra offensive positions (two catchers, MI and CI), I would have preferred to grab Robinson Cano or Xander Bogaerts with my seventh pick over Eric Hosmer. These guys might not return to their career highs in most categories, but they’re cemented in solid lineups and offer bankable production. 

I did land Marwin Gonzalez in the eighth — a target of mine for his 1B, 2B, SS and OF eligibility — but his flexibility doesn’t help much when he’s forced into a starting MI spot instead of backing up all three.

My worst pick of the day was Sonny Gray in the ninth when I wanted Chris Taylor (2B/OF eligible, solid source of steals). Again, looking ahead and hoping a target will come back to you is dumb. Take the guys you want, especially when their positional flexibility gives you more options later.

Luis Castillo is worth targeting

After flubbing the Gray pick — just last week I advocated for offense over pitching early — I decided to take the young Reds flamethrower anyway. The 25-year-old was inching his way up the queue, and at a 10th round price tag, I’m buying that the rookie can duplicate, or improve upon, last year’s impressive half-season: 15 starts, 3.12 ERA, 1.075 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. The Reds will limit Castillo’s win upside (he was 3-7 last year), but he looks like an ace in the making.

Here’s how starters came off the board in the 10th round:

Johnny Cueto (10.1)

Zack Godley (10.3)

Lance McCullers (10.4)

Rich Hill (10.6)

Luis Castillo (10.8)

Trevor Bauer (10.10)

Alex Wood (10.12)

Four starters were also selected in the ninth. This is prime SP3 drafting territory.

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