2021 Tout Wars Season Review – Crisis Management

Throughout my 20+ years managing fantasy baseball teams, I’ve dealt with plenty of injuries. But I’ve never lost my best player to a season-ending injury with half of a season still to play. That all changed this year, on the afternoon of July 10 to be precise, when Ronald Acuña Jr. crashed into the outfield wall in Miami and tore his ACL. My chances of finishing in the top-5 in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction league, let alone holding my third-place position, were slim to none. How could I possibly fill the void left by the consensus #1 overall fantasy player, who was on pace for nearly 50 homers, more than 100 RBI, 140+ runs and 30+ steals? The only consolation would be the 510 FAAB dollars I’d receive for releasing Acuña, but that would hardly soften the blow. I was fully prepared for a standings plunge.

But something strange happened. There was no standings plunge. I actually ended the season with more roto points than I had at the time of the Acuña injury and never dropped out of third place, even for a day. How was this possible? I still can’t quite figure it out but through a combination of a few key FAAB pickups and a trade completed a week before Acuña ran into that wall, I was able to replace most of the lost production. Even though I fell short of winning the league, by a lot, this season was almost as gratifying as my 2016 championship campaign. Go figure.

Alright, as I do at the conclusion of every Tout Wars season, let’s hand out some awards, both positive and negative, but mostly positive.

Best draft purchase: Zack Wheeler ($15)

Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer ($28), Matt Olson ($20), Kyle Seager ($2), Cesar Hernandez ($2)

Dominant starting pitching, especially in the first half, was the biggest reason for my team’s success this season, and the Wheeler/Scherzer duo led the way. I expected Wheeler to be a steady low-end SP2/high-end SP3 but didn’t quite imagine that he would put together a Cy Young caliber season. There was some concern about Wheeler’s career-low strikeout rate in 2020 but I placed more value on his overall big-league track record and banked on a rebound in the whiff department. Fifteen bucks seemed like a fair price. Maybe he will never duplicate his 2021 stat line but the Phillies righty has clearly established himself as a fantasy ace. Managers in 15-team mixed leagues should feel fortunate if they can land him for less than $30 in drafts next spring. An underwhelming 2020 showing knocked down Scherzer’s price to the level of mid-range fantasy ace, so there was certainly room for profit at $28. Still, when Aaron Nola went for $26 after I had already rostered Scherzer, I regretted the Scherzer buy. Six months later, all of this is laughable.

On the hitting side, Seager and Hernandez fit the description of boring but steady, and I like that type of player as they are always undervalued. Although the OBP was ugly, Seager posted career-highs in home runs (35) and RBI (101) in his age-33 season. Hernandez launched a shocking 15 homers in the first half before losing his power stroke after the All-Star break. But all in all, the veteran second baseman delivered a huge profit. Olson was my most reliable hitter from start to finish and has earned $30+ player status heading into 2022.

Worst draft purchase: Michael Conforto ($24)

Honorable Mention: Mike Moustakas ($14)

The appeal with Conforto entering 2021 was that he was a safe pick. Count on 30-90-90 with a helpful OBP (Tout uses OBP instead of AVG) and you wouldn’t be disappointed. Or so I thought. The Mets outfielder missed a good portion of the season due to injury and often looked lost at the plate when he was healthy enough to play. A decent second half (.252/.347/.445 with 11 homers and 35 RBI) boosted his final stat line to the point where you can actually look at it and not feel sick to your stomach. Still, this was probably the worst $24 auction day investment I’ve ever made. It will be interesting to see if the Mets extend a qualifying offer to Conforto this winter, and maybe the impending free agent will take it, rebuild his market value and enter free agency again in 2022. This is unlikely to happen since his agent is Scott Boras, but it’s possible. From a fantasy perspective, he makes for an intriguing rebound candidate who can probably be had for around $10.

Moustakas was limited to 62 games due to injury and like Conforto, the production just wasn’t there even when he did take the field. Also like Conforto, much of Moose’s fantasy value centered around his high floor, so his 2021 struggles were quite surprising. I’m willing to give him a health-related mulligan and would jump at the opportunity to draft him for somewhere in the $5-$8 range.

Best FAAB addition: Yasmani Grandal ($82 on 8/23)

Honorable Mentions: Alex Colome ($107 on 8/9), Jesus Sanchez ($28 on 8/30)

In mid-August, eventual league champion Jeff Zimmerman released the injured Grandal for a sizable FAAB rebate. Even though there was some uncertainty as to when he would return, I immediately added the White Sox backstop. From what I was reading, it sounded like he would be back soon. Only a few days later and less than two weeks after Jeff released him, Grandal was activated from the IL and I was rewarded with five weeks of elite catcher production. In 30 games for my squad, Grandal tallied nine homers, 24 RBI and 18 runs while posting a .481 OBP. Pretty good.

After resisting the temptation to spend significant amounts of FAAB to chase saves throughout the first half of the season, I decided to change course in August since I had excess FAAB and there were a few gainable points in saves. The Tyler Clippard investment returned so-so results but the 107 bucks I shelled out for Colome bought me 12 saves to go along with a respectable 3.86 ERA. Those 12 saves turned out to be worth 3.5 points in the overall standings.

Sanchez proved to be another strong waiver wire purchase, contributing eight homers, 19 RBI and 15 runs in 28 games on my roster.

Worst FAAB addition: Brandon Marsh ($127 on 7/26)

Honorable Mention: Oscar Mercado ($73 on 7/15)

In the couple of weeks following the Ronald Acuña FAAB reclaim, I went a little overboard with my newly acquired dough, grabbing Marsh and Mercado for a combined $200. Marsh was playing regularly at the time and seemed like a worthy high-upside flier while Mercado could replace some of Acuña’s steals. In a combined 25 games while in my active lineup, this outfield pair produced one homer, two RBI and eight runs. Not good.

Best trade: Dallas Keuchel and Pedro Severino for Robbie Ray

Honorable Mention: Taijuan Walker for Paul Goldschmidt

In hindsight, these two trades are probably the best two swaps I’ve ever made in my 10 years competing in Tout Wars. But even the Ray deal wasn’t a no-brainer when it was completed in mid-May. Despite an encouraging start to the season, the Toronto southpaw was coming off a disastrous 2020 campaign which followed a rather mediocre 2019 showing. I was primarily looking for a strikeout upgrade and figured that as long as Ray didn’t wreak havoc on my ERA and WHIP, this was a trade that made sense. Keuchel might be safer but his minuscule K rate was frustrating me to no end. I was also fortunate that Scott Pianowski was in need of a catcher and I had a spare one in Severino. Well, you know the rest of this story.

The story of the Walker-for-Goldschmidt trade can be summed up in two words: perfect timing. At the time of the swap, on July 5, Walker was 7-3 with a 2.61 ERA. He would finish the season with a 7-11 record and a 4.47 ERA. While it was hard to envision Walker maintaining his ace-level stat line, who could have predicted that the second-half fall would be this steep? Meanwhile, Goldschmidt took his game to a new level once he joined my squad, swatting 19 homers to go along with 55 RBI, 59 runs and a .409 OBP in 75 games.

Worst trade: Jonathan Schoop for Daniel Vogelbach

Now we get to the worst trade I’ve ever made in my 10 years competing in Tout Wars. I’m really at a loss for words here but I guess the trade sounded reasonable on May 17 with Schoop having amassed a grand total of two homers and 11 RBI. Then came a 10 HR/ 27 RBI month of June and the trade wasn’t so reasonable anymore.

Good thing the other two deals more than balanced this one out.

Special thanks to Peter Kreutzer, Ron Shandler, Todd Zola, Jeff Erickson and Brian Walton for running all of the Tout leagues. After last year’s abbreviated version, it sure was nice to once again play a full season.

Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.