My third season in the LABR mixed league began on a disappointing note, but the disappointment was somewhat expected. As it turned out, the idea that Trea Turner might still be available at #9 was wishful thinking, as the ESPN.com team of Stephania Bell and Kyle Soppe grabbed the Nationals shortstop at #6. The good news is that I was prepared for this. In fact, in the days leading up to last Tuesday’s festivities, I had spent too much time wavering between Jose Ramirez and Trevor Story. It was my first major fantasy baseball decision of 2021, and I sure hope it was the right one. The shortstop position is deep this year, and there were several appealing mid-round options. Third base? Not so much. Plus, the thought that the Rockies could opt to trade Story sooner rather than later was unsettling. So, I welcomed Ramirez to my squad before turning my attention to the other 28 players I’d be drafting before the night was over.
The early-round plan was to target multi-dimensional hitters, one legit ace and a stable closer. I know, the term “stable closer” is an oxymoron these days, but the saves-chasing game in FAAB is so tedious that I think it’s important to roster at least one reliever who we can expect to hold onto the ninth-inning job from start to finish and deliver 30-plus saves. Raisel Iglesias fits that description, so I was glad to take him in Round 7. Luis Castillo (Round 2) fits the description of a legit ace while Starling Marte (Round 3) is as proven as it gets when it comes to five-category contributors.
As for the rest of my draft, here are the highlights.
The Reaches
Some fantasy managers pay more attention to ADP than others. I’ve always been somewhere in the middle. Although using ADP as a rankings list during drafts is ill-advised, I do think that ADP can be useful when deciding whether or not you can wait another round to draft a certain player even if you are comfortable drafting the player well before their ADP. By reaching, you are giving up on the opportunity to first address another area of need. But in a league like LABR, stacked with accomplished pros, playing the ADP game can be dangerous. All it takes is one other owner who values the player just as highly and you will miss out altogether. So when George Springer, whose NFBC ADP since 2/1 is 50, was taken at pick #41 and my fallback fourth-round target, Marcell Ozuna, went off the board three picks before my turn, I called an audible and grabbed Michael Conforto, who I liked but valued as a fifth-rounder. This could turn out to be a mistake, as Conforto’s NFBC ADP since 2/1 is 75 yet I took him at #52. But I really wanted Conforto, who offers an appealing blend of a high floor and a higher ceiling, and had my doubts that he would still be available when my next turn came at #69. With a 45-second pick timer, quick decisions needed to be made, so I went ahead and got my guy.
The fifth round was the same story as I grabbed Paul Goldschmidt nearly two rounds earlier than ADP, guessing that the LABR market would be more bullish on Goldy than the NFBC market. The Kolten Wong pick in the 12th round was the biggest reach. I may have been able to wait until as late as the 15th round to select Wong, and Jean Segura was the safer 2B choice in that spot. But Wong has a great opportunity to thrive in Milwaukee, hitting near the top of a solid lineup. This is unlike me, as I’m usually more concerned with maximizing “value”, so we’ll see if the altered approach works out. Let’s just say I’m cautiously optimistic.
Trashcan Banging
The wait time between my seventh-round and eighth-round picks seemed like an hour, though it was really only a few minutes. During those few minutes, Mike Moustakas sat comfortably atop my queue. But it wasn’t meant to be. Ryan Bloomfield snagged Moose two picks before my turn, and I was sent scrambling. With the clock winding down (6-5-4-3), shortstop became the focus, and Correa was the choice. The old Zach would have taken the safer Marcus Semien, but there’s no fun in that. Correa is risky. He’s very risky. And it’s not like I got him at a discount at pick #112. The 26-year-old has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency for quite some time now but I had no idea until I looked it up that he’s only 26, and he did stay healthy last season. There’s .300-30-100 upside here but quite a bit of downside. As for the title of this section, here’s hoping that his career-best 2017 season wasn’t aided by a certain scheme.
Rotation Diversity
One of the keys to winning any fantasy league is assembling the right mix of high-floor players and players with a wider range of outcomes. Ideally, the middle and late rounds is when you want to target the second group. I think I achieved this goal, particularly on the starting pitching front. Beyond Castillo, Jose Berrios and to a lesser extent Marcus Stroman belong in the safe group while the Jameson Taillon/Taijuan Walker/Justus Sheffield trio progressively gets riskier. Joe Musgrove is sort of a hybrid, as he is unlikely to be a major disappointment yet holds a top-20 SP ceiling.
Seeking a Second Closer
When choosing a second closer, my main priority has always been job security. Joakim Soria, the owner of 223 career saves, figures to get a long leash in Arizona, and he’s coming off a strong 2020 campaign. I’m not too worried about Stefan Crichton. I know that investing in the mid-tier closer group is frowned upon in fantasy baseball circles, as the profit success rate is low, but Soria in the 15th round seems like a sound investment. The possibility of a midseason trade is my biggest concern.
Old and Boring, Young and Exciting
The safe/risky starting pitching balance wasn’t the only balance involved in my strategy as I spent much of the second half of the draft mixing ages. Over the past few years, the average age of my industry league rosters has been a little too high for my liking, and while drafting older known commodities might be reassuring, drafting too many of those guys can lead to a lot of sixth-place finishes. So, it was by design that I complemented the Kyle Seager/Jonathan Schoop/Stephen Piscotty group with Alex Kirilloff, Justus Sheffield and Willie Calhoun.
Will this team win the 2021 LABR mixed league crown? My goal is to not know the answer to this question until the end of play on October 3.
Special thanks to Steve Gardner for single-handedly running these leagues each and every year.
Click here for the full draft results.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
