2020 Tout Wars Season Review – Unfamiliar Territory

Maybe I should have seen this coming. In a season unlike any of my previous 20 seasons playing fantasy baseball and eight seasons participating in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction league, maybe it’s only fitting that I turned in my worst Tout finish, 14th place, just 1.5 roto points above the cellar. I usually spend October and November unwinding from the six-month grind that is the fantasy baseball season, but this year is different. I’ve never been more looking forward to March and a fresh start. Can we draft tomorrow? But before I turn all of my attention to 2021, I might learn something by looking back at 2020. What went wrong? A lot. We’ll get to the specifics shortly, but on a general note, the season’s abbreviated length was surely a major factor.

I tend to be very patient with my drafted players, and this managerial trait has served me well more often than not. But in a 67-day fantasy season, being too patient can backfire. Rather than giving an underachieving mid-level player about six weeks to get their act together before either benching them indefinitely or dropping them, the 2020 leash should not have lasted more than two or three weeks. I didn’t make this adjustment, which would have limited the damage done by some of my poorer draft day buys.

OK, on to the specifics.

Costly Error

Winning a league is difficult when your most expensive player falls well short of expectations. Such was the case with Francisco Lindor ($44), who turned in an underwhelming .258/.335/.415 slash line with eight homers, 27 RBIs, 30 runs and six steals. I have little doubt that the Indians shortstop would have more closely resembled his 2017-2019 self if afforded more time, but time was in short supply this season. If Lindor’s disappointing 2020 campaign results in him falling outside of the top-12 in drafts next spring, he could reward his 2021 owners with an excellent return on investment.

Aces No More

Rather than drafting a top-5 starting pitcher to serve as my fantasy ace, I prefer to shop in the low-end ace market, and Patrick Corbin, coming off a stellar first season in Washington, seemed like a safe choice. I wasn’t expecting a Cy Young, but a repeat of 2019 (14-7, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 238 K in 202 IP) did not sound too far-fetched, especially considering that he posted very similar numbers in 2018. Well, nothing about Corbin’s 2020 season was ace-like, as he finished with a 2-7 record, a 4.66 ERA and an ugly 1.57 WHIP in 11 starts. Corbin’s opponent BABIP of .362 suggests that some bad luck contributed to his bloated 11.6 H/9 and many of his peripherals, including HR/FB and GB/FB, were similar to his 2019 levels. On the other hand, his velocity was down a bit. All in all, I’m willing to take another chance on the Nationals southpaw in 2021 at a reduced cost. I like him a lot as an SP2 in mixed leagues.

When it comes to Madison Bumgarner, it’s a different story. Although I headed into this year fully aware that his days as an ace were over, I was still optimistic that he could serve as a viable low-end SP2, as he turned in a strong rebound season in 2019. Perhaps I was overly influenced by what happened last year, when I made the unpopular decision to draft Bumgarner as my SP2 in the LABR mixed league and it paid off. As it turned out, the collapse did happen, just a year later than many expected. I should’ve quit while I was ahead.

Folty, Lucchesi and Ray, Oh My!

I’m usually good at identifying undervalued starting pitchers. Not this year. Even though I paid only $16 combined for this trio, whiffing on all three might be the biggest reason for my lost season, as quality performances from at least two of them could have significantly reduced the negative impact of Corbin and Bumgarner. At least Foltynewicz and Lucchesi made only three starts combined for my team. In the case of Ray, I was too patient, allowing him to make seven starts, irreparably ruining my ratios along the way. I’m officially done with Ray, and you should be too. Let someone else chase the strikeouts.

Lorenzo Runs Home

After playing just five games, Lorenzo Cain opted out of the season. I was relying on Cain for steals, runs and a strong OBP and never found a suitable replacement via the waiver wire. Totally out of my control, but this was a tough loss, as Cain is arguably the most valuable fantasy player who opted out.

Breakout Season Gone Bad

Fresh off a promising 2019 season in which he batted .287 with 15 homers and 19 steals, Amed Rosario appeared to be on the verge of taking another step forward in 2020. After spending just $10 to add him to my roster on draft day, I was convinced that the 24-year-old shortstop would net me a profit. Not quite. Rosario went on to register a meager .252/.272/.371 slash line with zero stolen bases. Zero. He attempted only one steal. What’s up with that? Despite all of this, I’m nowhere near ready to give up on him. He’s too young and the power/speed potential is too tempting. While he won’t be a prime target in drafts next spring, I’d gladly grab him if the price is right.

Upton’s Slow Start

Our draft was held on March 14, when Covid was still a new word in the country’s vocabulary. At the time, we knew that the MLB season would be delayed. We didn’t know that it wouldn’t begin until late-July. So what does this have to do with Justin Upton? Prior to his injury-marred 2019 season, the veteran outfielder had been a consistent fantasy producer. But the consistency was more of the year-to-year variety, not week-to-week or even month-to-month. Upton has always been streaky, and often a slow starter. But this didn’t bother me as I banked on a bounceback campaign and figured that the season would be long enough (maybe 100 games?) to ensure that his slumps would be balanced out by hot stretches. Unfortunately, the season wasn’t long enough. Upton got off to a dreadful start and was even temporarily relegated to part-time duty. He played his way back into a full-time role and finished the year with a respectable nine home runs, but time ran out in his quest to improve his other numbers. I have rostered Upton in so many fantasy leagues over the years that I can’t even begin to count, so maybe my attachment to him is unhealthy. But considering the minimal acquisition cost, I have a feeling that he will be on at least one of my teams next season.

The Good

Since I’m an optimist by nature, I cannot end this review without pointing out a few positives. My starting pitching could have been worse if I had not drafted Dallas Keuchel for $2 or added Adam Wainwright off the waiver wire during the first FAAB period of the season. And my hitting could have been worse if I had not benefited from strong rebound campaigns by Jesus Aguilar, who I purchased for $3 in the auction, and Maikel Franco, who I drafted in the reserve rounds.

Alright, I think that just about does it. Special thanks to Peter Kreutzer, Todd Zola, Ron Shandler, Jeff Erickson and Brian Walton for steering us through this logistically challenging season.

2021 cannot come soon enough.

Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.