2020 Tout Wars Mixed Auction Draft Recap — Change of Plans

Only two and a half weeks ago, Tout Wars Weekend in New York was still on the calendar. A lot has changed since, and it’s now clear that the Tout organizers made the right decision in moving the auctions online. COVID-19 wasn’t as big of a concern then as it is now, but it was enough of a concern to suggest that gathering a large number of people in a hotel in midtown Manhattan to conduct four drafts, each lasting four-plus hours, probably wasn’t a great idea.

Being a lifelong New York City resident, it has taken me a little extra time to sit down and write this draft review. Let’s just say I’ve been a bit distracted. But I’m ready now, and it’s only fitting that I write this on what would have been Opening Day in an alternate universe, a much more pleasant universe.

My auction draft preparation consists of constructing an ideal roster that I expect to fit under the $260 budget. I assign each roster slot a bid limit with certain players in mind and make sure to include several cheaper fallback options along with approximate bid limits. If the bidding on my top choice exceeds their assigned price by more than a dollar or two, I turn to option B, and repeat the process for options C, D and E. I then use the savings to upgrade my target at another position, all the while keeping track of how much over budget or under budget I am relative to my initial phantom team projection.

I headed into the Fantrax auction room on March 14 with a slightly different strategy than in years past. I have always followed a fairly balanced approach, where I’d buy one $40-plus hitter, another hitter in the $30 neighborhood and a pitcher for around $25 before living in the $10-$20 range. This plan has generally worked well, as I’ve finished among the top-four in the league in four of the last six years. Still, it has resulted in only one championship. Even in a mixed league, I’m not a big fan of stars and scrubs, as it puts a lot of pressure on your stars to both stay healthy and earn close to their auction price tag. But I had enough $1-$5 targets this year that I felt comfortable going after a pair of $40-plus hitters. Also, I figured that in a likely shortened season, roster depth would be a little less important than usual.

Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Christian Yelich would surely go for more than $50, so the plan was to buy Mookie Betts and his elite five-category contributions for around $44 and Nolan Arenado for roughly $40. Francisco Lindor for $40-$42 was also on my radar, but the combination of the depth at shortstop this year and Lindor’s higher expected price made the ultra-consistent Arenado the slightly more appealing option.

Well, that plan lasted about five minutes into the auction, when I was pleasantly surprised to win Bryce Harper for $38, a fine price being that Tout is an OBP league. As much as I wanted Betts, after seeing Trout go for $55 and Yelich for $53, I predicted that he would cost at least a few bucks more than my original $44 expectation, so saving double-digit dollars and grabbing Harper instead seemed like a smart move. Soon after, Betts was purchased for $50, and Harper’s $38 price looked even better. Since I missed out on Betts’ power/speed offerings, I pivoted from Arenado to Lindor, figuring that the Cleveland shortstop was a better fit with Harper. Although I was glad to get Lindor, $45 was definitely an overpay, and getting caught in the Lindor bidding war made the rest of the auction more challenging as I was forced to settle for my second, third and even fourth choices at several other positions.

THE ROSTER

HITTING

C Jorge Alfaro ($3)

C Yadier Molina ($2)

1B Carlos Santana ($24)

2B Mike Moustakas ($16)

SS Francisco Lindor ($45)

3B Eduardo Escobar ($11)

CI Jesus Aguilar ($3)

MI Amed Rosario ($10)

OF Bryce Harper ($38)

OF Lorenzo Cain ($12)

OF Justin Upton ($10)

OF Nomar Mazara ($3)

OF Austin Hays ($3)

UT Brett Gardner ($3)

RESERVES: Joc Pederson, Kevin Pillar, Dee Gordon, Maikel Franco

• To fill my #1 catcher slot, spending around $8 for either Omar Narvaez or Carson Kelly was the preferred plan. But I was over budget for most of the auction and identified the catcher position as an area where I could save some money. Instead, I rostered Jorge Alfaro and Yadier Molina for a combined $5. The 26-year-old Alfaro has established himself as a solid power source after slugging 18 homers in 465 plate appearances last season. Molina is old and boring, but if his health holds up he will still play more than most catchers and provide decent counting stats.

• Although it’s hard to imagine Carlos Santana duplicating last season’s stat line, he still offers a high floor, especially in an OBP league (career .367 OBP). His $24 price tag is no bargain, but it’s fair. Rhys Hoskins was my top target at 1B but Santana was close behind. When the Hoskins bidding stopped at $23 early in the auction, I resisted the urge to jump in, thinking that I could get Santana for a few dollars less. It didn’t work out.

• The opposite happened at the corner infield position, where C.J. Cron was my first choice and I incorrectly predicted that his price would exceed $5. Instead, I purchased Jesus Aguilar for $3, which I considered to be a slight discount. I’m fine with Aguilar, who I think will benefit from a fresh start and everyday playing time in Miami, but Cron ended up costing Brent Hershey a mere $1. This annoyed me, but I do own Cron in two other leagues, so maybe diversifying my portfolio will turn out to be a good thing.

• The original plan was to buy Amed Rosario for a maximum of $14 to serve as my starting shortstop, so I was pleased to get him as my starting MI, which was made possible by the money saved at a few other positions. Rosario is still only 24 years old and he’s fresh off a stellar second half last season in which he posted a .319/.351/.453 slash line while tallying nine stolen bases. At the time of the Rosario buy, I was a bit light in speed, so he was a welcome addition to my roster.

• There’s no question that both Lorenzo Cain and Justin Upton are past their primes, but both also happen to be intriguing bounce-back candidates. Cain will be 34 next month, so expecting him to return to his 2018 form might be unrealistic. But he’s a proven fantasy asset who should steal around 10 bases (assuming a three-month season) while posting a strong OBP, and he will score plenty of runs hitting atop a formidable Brewers lineup. Prior to last year’s injury-marred campaign, Upton was one of the steadiest power bats in the game and was coming off three straight seasons of at least 30 homers and 85 RBIs. For $10, I’m willing to bank on a rebound. As for the rest of the outfield, I liked the idea of complementing Cain and Upton with some youth and upside, and the Mazara/Hays duo fits that description.

PITCHING

SP Patrick Corbin ($28)

SP Madison Bumgarner ($12)

Robbie Ray ($10)

Joey Lucchesi ($3)

Mike Foltynewicz ($3)

SP Dallas Keuchel ($2)

RP Kenley Jansen ($15)

RP Wade Davis ($3)

RP Tony Watson ($1)

RESERVES: Jose Quintana, Johnny Cueto

• Relying on Madison Bumgarner as your SP2 in a mixed league is risky, and my ideal plan was to pair Patrick Corbin with Jose Berrios, but my adjusted budget did not allow what would have been at least a $20 investment in Berrios. Twelve bucks is a good price for Bumgarner but it remains to be seen if the career-long Giant will make a smooth transition from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to Chase Field. That said, fantasy pundits were really down on Bumgarner at this time last year but he went on to prove his skeptics wrong. Few players are more competitive than Bumgarner, and especially in the case of pitcher projections, I firmly believe that there’s an important intangible element that no advanced stat can measure.

• The shortened season influenced my RP2 strategy in that there will be fewer opportunities for a shaky closer to lose his job and fewer opportunities to acquire saves via the waiver wire. I usually place a high importance on job security and budget about $10, but I tried something different this time, grabbing two saves sources in Wade Davis and Tony Watson for a combined $4. Hopefully, Davis will get back on track following a disastrous 2019 season. He’s already been named Colorado’s closer to open 2020 and certainly has a proven record of success. This “quantity over quality” strategy could backfire, but I’m willing to try it out.

Overall, this team is my kind of team. I clearly prioritized hitting ($183/$77 hitting/pitching split), but on the pitching side, Joey Lucchesi, Mike Foltynewicz, Dallas Keuchel and to a lesser extent Robbie Ray could all deliver legitimate profits. Will I get the chance to manage this team? I sure hope so.

Thanks to Peter Kreutzer, Todd Zola, Jeff Erickson, Ron Shandler and Brian Walton for organizing Tout Wars Weekend, both the in-person Tout Wars Weekend That Wasn’t and the online Tout Wars Weekend That Was, which was almost as fun.

To view the full rosters for all of the Tout leagues, click here.

Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.