Thanks in large part to the opportunity writing for CREATiVESPORTS, combined with a little hustle, I was invited to participate in the 2EarlyMock Drafts with some of the most established fantasy baseball writers and podcasters on social media. These mock drafts will be used to compile the first available ADP for 2021 drafts, so it is quite a thrill to have a small part in the effecting data that millions of people will see. The project is lead by Justin Mason who is also the founder of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational.
Today I will be discussing the first half of the draft, with the second half of the draft being discussed in my next article. There are many ways to approach drafting, and I would draft different players in different situations. That being said, this gives readers an idea of the type of players that will be selected in the first half of drafts.
I won’t be diving into the analytics on the players I selected, but more sharing general thoughts about the player, the pick, the position, or anything else that seemed relevant at the time of each selection. It’s important to consider such things as roster size, position eligibility, statistical categories, among countless other variables.
This particular draft is structured as a standard roto league, with the five traditional pitching categories (ERA, WHIP, W, SV, K) and the five traditional hitting categories (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB). It’s a 28-round draft with two catcher spots, a MI, CI, and 5 outfielders in the starting lineup, as well as the usual positions. It’s a 15-team league. With that as the backdrop, here are the results and a few thoughts to accompany each pick.
Round 1, Pick 8 – Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers
The first round looks deep and plentiful. Regardless of what draft position you end up with, you will end up with a cornerstone type player. I generally prefer to target a five-category hitter with a track record that is in their prime. Considering Yelich was in the mix for 1st overall pick in March, I felt good about the selection. My first impression is that it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft near the back of the first round, as you should be able to land two players with first-round talent. If you’re a believer in securing an ace early, a case can be made for selecting Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, or Gerrit Cole in the first and pairing them with the best available bat in round 2.
Round 2, Pick 23 – Anthony Rendon, 3B, Angels
I generally try not to get too fancy in the early stages of the draft. I look at the best available players and try to select the most proven pure hitter, who is in their prime, hitting in a premium spot in their respective lineup. Nothing fancy about the pick, but Rendon is an excellent hitter who most closely matched the criteria I was looking for. If there is a stable five-category player available at this stage, that would be the alternative to this. I also don’t mind the idea of stockpiling up on pitchers early, so adding an ace here could be a justifiable pick as well.
Round 3, Pick 38 – Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Again, sticking to the script of high-floor, high-ceiling guys in their prime. Selecting my second third baseman right out the gate isn’t ideal, but it’s an example of not letting positions dictate the early stages of your draft. If a top-notch hitter has fallen to you, more often than not, you have to take the value and build around it. I like to let the draft come to me in the early stages. I’m not trying to be a hero with my picks, only remain a strong contender as it unfolds.
Round 4, Pick 53 – Blake Snell, SP, Rays
After focusing on the best available bat for three rounds, I decided this was a good time to get involved with the pitchers. Considering there were several outstanding pitchers taken early on, I felt rather fortunate to land someone with the upside of Snell at this stage. If he’s able to recapture the magic he showed in 2018, he is a great selection for those who want to wait on pitching.
Round 5, Pick 68 – Sonny Gray, SP, Reds
It seemed like a good idea to back up the Snell selection with another quality pitcher. Since I won’t have one of the premium aces on my roster and focused on offense early, I like the idea of doubling up on pitchers to begin building a pitching staff with quality depth, capable of competing with ace-led teams.
Round 6, Pick 83 – Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks
It became clear relatively early on that second base looks like the thinnest position in fantasy. I don’t think the player who broke out in 2019 and won many leagues for managers is coming back, but I do believe the essential skills are present for Marte to be a value pick at a weak position. Injuries played a role in his low production this season, and he makes for a solid selection at a relative discount.
Round 7, Pick 98 – Wil Myers, OF, Padres
I was having doubts about this pick soon after making the selection. Statcast loved him this year, and I used to like him as a prospect, but he needs to be quite good to be a top 100 player, and I’m not sure the track record is there. I’m cautiously optimistic but likely would go a different direction in hindsight.
Round 8, Pick 113 – Carlos Correa, SS, Astros
It felt good to land a prime shortstop with upside outside the top 100. Only injuries have prevented Correa from being consistently excellent for a little while now. Considering the price some managers paid to land a top shortstop, this felt like an excellent fallback option.
Round 9, Pick 128 – Lance McCullers, SP, Astros
The late-season addition of a filthy new pitch, a year further removed from TJS and in his prime. All things considered I’m relatively pleased with McCullers as my SP3 entering next season. Pitchers with a lot worse stuff have had big years in the past, so I’ll take the risk that he’s able to put it all together.
Round 10, Pick 143 – Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers
Seemingly in the league for a decade but just beginning to emerge into the pitcher he’s capable of becoming. I was excited to land Urias at this stage, and if the Dodgers take the training wheels off, he has the pedigree and upside to become one of the best pitchers on my roster. He feels like a nice SP4.
Round 11, Pick 158 – Franmil Reyes, DH, Indians
There were various quality options available here, and I nearly passed on Reyes due to only qualifying at DH. Ultimately, I felt the team needed a legitimate power boost, and experience playing many leagues with players like David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz at DH gave me the confidence. Secretly I’m hoping the slugger gains OF eligibility early in the season.
Round 12, Pick 173 – Mike Soroka, SP, Braves
Soroka has been a quality pitcher when healthy, and I felt selecting him at this stage to fill the SP5 slot was a wise investment. As the season approaches and the righty shows he is back to his old self, I would expect his ADP to rise. There is always risk selecting pitchers coming off an injury, but since it wasn’t an arm injury, it feels like his price has deflated too far.
Round 13, Pick 188 – J.D. Davis, 3B/OF, Mets
One of my favorite picks in the first half of the draft. Davis is a player I heavily touted as a breakout candidate entering 2020, and I backed that up by rostering him in every league I play. While the secret is no longer a secret, there still seems to be enough doubt that he makes for an intriguing mid-round pick with upside.
Round 14, Pick 203 – Josh Bell, 1B, Pirates
I had considered Bell on my shortlist since selecting Franmil Reyes in the 11th round, so I was pleasantly surprised to find him here 45 picks later. There is some concern that his epic first half in 2019 was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come, but the potential for Bell to leave Pittsburgh and his ability to hit makes him very intriguing beyond 200 picks of a draft.
Follow Michael on Twitter
