This week, the CBS NL-only analysts league honed in on the current National League landscape. (Find the full results here.)
My plan was to spend big on Trea Turner — an elite, four-category burner — rather than build my offense around a Joey Votto/Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna combo. With stolen bases in the bank, the strategy would be to find deals on power later in the draft, and I was set to sneak a couple other high batting average/runs guys to offset any AVG drains. I’d probably have to settle on mid-tier starters and value closers, but I’m good with that.
After a brief delay and a last-minute draft room refresh, Turner hit the auction block first and things escalated quickly…
Drafters are big on the Nationals speedy shortstop
It took me a while to accept Trea Turner’s expected $44 price tag even before the draft started, but I like the idea of avoiding the category drags other burners bring to the table. (Although, in hindsight, I should have grabbed another one or two cheap, double-digit steals guys along the way.)
Of course, I didn’t expect the drama to start with the first player nominated. As my draft room opened, Turner’s price was already flexing into the high 30s then low 40s. I jumped in the mix, frantically offering even more than I expected: $45… $47… $49…
I swear I was stopping there, but everyone else was out. Thirty seconds into the draft, I had paid what would be the highest price for a single player in the league.
Takes money to make money
At the end of every draft, it’s easy to debate the best and worst picks and prices. In auctions, though, you can’t build a roster using only players coming off the board at less than market rate. You have to go after the guys you like, win the bids and then re-target based on how your budget looks. The deals will fall into your lap, sometimes unexpectedly.
I targeted Justin Turner as a reasonably priced high-average slugger to pair with Trea Turner early, and I was willing to pony up even a little more than the $23 it cost me for his services. The savings from the likes of a $29 Ozuna made up for the inflation on Trea, but I still felt the need to proceed cautiously.
And that’s exactly where I think my draft fell short of its potential — I consistently bowed out around $18-$20 mark the rest of the way. By the time I felt forced to throw down $24 for Paul DeJong late in the game, each of these second baseman had been scooped up for that much or less: Daniel Murphy ($24), Chris Taylor ($21), DJ LeMahieu ($20). Then again, when Cesar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez are running $18, you have to pay up for someone with DeJong’s upside.
Mid-tier starters FTW
Halfway through the draft, I realized I was sitting on one of the biggest bankrolls and decided to start winning some damn bids so I could field a team. I found some solid prices on mid-tier starters with potential who I had targeted:
Alex Wood ($15)
Jameson Taillon ($13)
Kenta Maeda ($12)
Miles Mikolas ($11)
Dan Straily ($6)
In hindsight it’s worth considering: Would we trade any two of the top four for Yu Darvish ($25), Aaron Nola ($24), Robby Ray ($23) or Carlos Martinez ($22)? Perhaps — but keep in mind that our bid would be at least $1 higher than what they went for. If our competitors don’t go away, the cost jumps $3. These guys were in demand.
I like the idea of countering my opponents’ top-tier starters with mid-tier guys with upside. Even if one of these players disappoints, I’ll be climbing back into the wins and strikeout categories with the other four, and my opponents’ ratios will be pulled down by starters they add on the cheap. Let’s meet in the middle here.
If Lance Lynn ($4) signs in the NL, I’m looking even better. I’ll be monitoring Robert Stephenson‘s ($1) progress as the year unfolds, and I nabbed Wade Miley for nothing in the reserve draft. Depth if I need it.
Closers are important in only-leagues
If I could go back and fix one part of the draft, it would be to bring home a second closer. I was fine with the inflated price I paid for Hector Neris ($16), but seeing Arodys Vizcaino go off the board for $10 hurt my heart, as he or Luke Gregerson ($10) would have given me a much better chance to compete in saves.
If you can’t get a second closer, it’s wise to pay a couple extra bucks for setup guys who can help your ratios with a shot at taking over the role at some point. I paid a buck for Kirby Yates and grabbed Tommy Hunter and Josh Fields in the reserve rounds for ratio help. If only I had more than $1 left when I nominated Pat Neshek to back up Neris. Alas, he sold for $2.
Free agent lottery picks
MLB’s languishing free agency isn’t a huge deal for mixed leagues, but people in this league are sweating whether the likes of Jake Arrieta ($14), Greg Holland ($7), Lance Lynn ($4), Alex Cobb ($4), Jonathan Lucroy ($4) and Mike Moustakas ($2) will even be on our teams when the season starts. (RIP Brandon Drury, who was my $3 MI dude for about two hours before being traded from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees.)
Pay attention to all “unaffiliated” players’ latest news — the risk brings potential reward: In last week’s AL-only analysts league, J.D. Martinez went for just $17. Now he’s in Boston, and his owner is pleased.
Follow Danny @_dannycross.
